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Post Info TOPIC: INvesting


Guru

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Date: Oct 12, 2013
RE: INvesting
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I wouldn't do that.  If it drops , gld is going to drop faster than the call you sold.  If you now want to get out of gld, you most likely will have to buy back the call you sold unless you have naked call privileges.  



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Date: Oct 12, 2013
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Like I said I think GLD is a short so I would not buy it. But if you believe there won't be a govt deal, GLD will go up. If you wish to take that bet then by selling covered calls you can get a yield in the event you are wrong. Covered calls limits the upside potential if GLD goes up a lot but it limits risk to the downside if GLD does what I expect which is stay the same or go down.

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Date: Oct 12, 2013
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"If I were to buy GLD, it would only be for the short run and I would probably sell covered calls. "

 

Why would you do this??



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Date: Oct 12, 2013
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longprime wrote:

is GLD a buy????confuse


 GLD is a short in my book.  Here's why.  Gold moves inversely to the dollar.  If interest rates go up the dollar gets stronger.  If the fed starts tapering, interest rates will go up.   I think the fed will start tapering in 2014, thus, interest rates will go up, thus, the dollar will strengthen, thus gold will fall.  

 

With that said, GLD could go up in the short run if the govt stays shut down.  Also the Indian wedding (hence gold buying) season started in August.  India has put restrictions on gold importing.  If they end, GLD could go up.

 

If I were to buy GLD, it would only be for the short run and I would probably sell covered calls.  

 

 



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Guru

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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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CNBC-a segment on breweries unable to get labels approved and registering for taxes. In Oregon, we have something like 200 brewers and each has a lineup of 3-5 brews, besides the seasonals.  Off to the local grocery for some sampling. 



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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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-Intelligent "gambling" . All money is short term when you look at it.  This is money that I can lose but will dearly fight to prevent losing it. I just don't have much time left,  not to look. I too placed money in a advisory MF company-decided that they didn't know any better when they held FHLMA , FNM, ML, C, WM, WAC, BAC, you know them. 

Gambling is what Banks did. And how a TBTF bank is trying not to do in this Political crisis. 



-- Edited by longprime on Friday 11th of October 2013 11:25:28 PM

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Guru

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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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If there is some resolution this weekend - gld is not a buy, if there isn't then it probably is.



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Guru

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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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is GLD a buy????confuse



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Guru

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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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sold in the morning. 

buy order placed last night after closing for am friday @ price that I exited. 

buy order was  placed on, day only, and ah markets hadn't closed so there was no order for Friday. Doesn't matter since initial pricing was way higher than my intended buy. Did buy at 46.72 . Crap, I really don't want to hold too much over the weekend. I'm just going to look at this company as a longterm hold/buy. 



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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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"I got out of SCTY yesterday. Then last night read some articles and placed a buy- limit order." 

 

I don't get it.  How do you place a buy - limit order when you're getting out of a stock?



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Guru

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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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I got out of SCTY yesterday. Then last night read some articles and placed a buy- limit order. Crap, I hate this market and should have stayed with my original premise of Not letting Congress affect my buy-sells. 



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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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Traded out of LNKD credit spread for profit of $169 per contract. That's the way it is supposed to be.

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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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Isn't odd the Stupid Party believes that Government should not dictate to  Business and the Economy, yet it happens more frequently  when the Stupid Party has a fit compared to  the Democrats when they pout. 

Older bro, at TBTF bank, isn't getting much sleep. I think the midterm election fund raising is going to really awaken the Stupid Party.



-- Edited by longprime on Friday 11th of October 2013 01:10:17 PM

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Date: Oct 11, 2013
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IBD went from Market in Correction on 10/8 to Uptrend under pressure today. They seemed to have skipped the step of Uptrend Resumes.



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Guru

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Date: Oct 10, 2013
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6 WEEKS to change SS, Medicare, ACA. ???? If Congress gets going next week, A solution by Dec 1 ??? evileye

Wimps. all of them. PBO Should've hold out for 6 month for proper Congressional deliberations. The Stupid Party just plain Caved-in. furious

I'm up, today, just 1.7% vs 2.2 on SP and Dow. disbelief



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Date: Oct 10, 2013
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I picked 220 as the strike price because I believed it was a short term bottom. I turned out to be wrong because it went down to 214 but fortunately came back up.

Poor IBD. They just issued a market correction call.



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Date: Oct 10, 2013
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Bummer right?  But on the other hand, I wouldn't count my chickens until they hatch.



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Date: Oct 10, 2013
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Damn, the Stupid Party is signaling capitulation. Market is way up and climbing 



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Date: Oct 10, 2013
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What made you chose those particular strike prices?



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Date: Oct 10, 2013
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I will close out the position on Friday because options get exercised on Saturday and I don't want to be long the stock if the trade goes against me before 4 p.m. on Friday EST.

I chose a credit spread on LNKD because I am bullish on the stock and because a lot of people think it will go down a lot. That means the puts have more value than they might if a lot of people were betting the stock will go up. I chose a one week trading time because I can get more premium per week with a one week trade than with a four week or longer trade. I am planning on doing it again next week if I am successful this week.



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Date: Oct 10, 2013
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And with LKND above 220, are you going to close out now or on expiration? 



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Guru

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Date: Oct 10, 2013
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So how did you choose to do this credit spread?



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Guru

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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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I should ask the experts here if anybody knows the probability of a 4 successive down days or 5 for that matter.



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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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I expect to see better lows tomorrow and Monday unless there is a resolution over the weekend.  Friday should be somewhat up as shorts do not want to hold over the weekend with the potential for an end to this nonsense.



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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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dow is up at 12:20ET, I saw some great lows at ~10ET. I got to remind myself not to get greedy and not to take on political risk. 



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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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What do you mean by technically it is a credit spread?



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Guru

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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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Technically it's a credit spread. The risk is limited. Yesterday I was up. Today I am down. We will see what happens Friday as to when I get out of the transaction.



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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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Down down we go - where we'll end up - nobody knows



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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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A credit spread means I got a credit made to my account when I entered the transaction. In other words, I sold the 220 put and got $400 per contract. That's a credit to my account. I bought the 215 put for $200 (a debit to my account), thus I have a spread. Some people call it a net credit spread but that is actually redundant but some consider it a clearer description.

Those numbers are not exact but are close.

It is a bullish credit spread because I told the higher strike price of 220 and bought the lower strike price of 215.

I am back positive on the trade now. My break even is when the stock is at about 218.5. If at or above 220, I make the full amount. My fingers are crossed.



-- Edited by Razorsharp on Wednesday 9th of October 2013 10:52:25 AM

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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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I think you are taking outsize risk.

I bought 100BX today on the upside this morning, got alarmed when DOW -75 and BX down -.5

I'm very much skittish now after today's PBO's presentation/press conference and Republican's reply. 



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Guru

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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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So I guess you're selling a  put spread?  Seems kind of dangerous in this environment.



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Guru

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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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IBD says "Market in Correction". That means don't buy anything.

I sold the 220 puts on LNKD and bought the 215 puts. They expire October 11 so if the stock is above 220 on October 11, I am very happy. If it is below 215, I am sad but my loss is limited.



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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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apparently so is everybody else as can be seen with the vix.



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Date: Oct 9, 2013
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I'm getting pessimistic. 



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Date: Oct 8, 2013
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I'm still waiting to pull the trigger on the market - perhaps on Monday I'll buy some stock.



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Date: Oct 8, 2013
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My solars started out pretty good and they faded very quickly. Maybe because federal tax credits could get cut rather just not renewed. evileyeevileye



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Date: Oct 7, 2013
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PBO has warned the public and the markets.  Unfortunately, it has been viewed by a number of people as just the typical politicking.  You have some good comments about nest eggs.



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Date: Oct 6, 2013
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33% year to date is nice, very nice.

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Date: Oct 6, 2013
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Razor,

I think PBO should warn the public on the Congress's effect on the Markets. If people lost money in the Markets, it will eventually affect the notation of Capitalism.

I'm into cash because I don't like Congress interfering in the Markets either directly or our current situation- indirectly.

The second issue is that most people don't have a great deal of equities and what they do have they are now dependent on equities and bonds to fund their retirement (housing equity is gone, not to return for another 15-20 years) It is better to be in cash and not lose than be in equities and lose big at the time when you don't want it lost. I was a passive investor in 2008 and lost a bunch like everyone else.  I don't particularly  like to be a fairly aggressive investor, but I do so because I need to a certain level of financial security that I once had and I 

Thirdly, Recovering your nestegg is very difficult when most of the eggs are in MF that just dropped 10-20% in value. Are MF managers going to be more aggressive or passive after losing this amount with investors withdrawing funds forcing managers to sell stocks and no cash to hedge or buy on opportunities. 

Fourth: People with wealth, are going to get wealthier simply because in comparison the 90% remainder of USA, they don't have to invest. And if they do invest they can buy lower and sell higher than anyone else. 

fifth: PBO has said repeatly that he will not negotiate on ACA. He really can't because it is law and a funded entitlement. He can possibly negotiate on the discretionary budget because he is the CEO. PBO can't negotiate on SS, so how is he going to negotiate on ACA? 

Sixth: People with just a moderate amount of wealth has more to lose that those who have no wealth or have great wealth. 

 



-- Edited by longprime on Sunday 6th of October 2013 11:54:20 AM

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Date: Oct 6, 2013
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Like what kinds of investments before the 17th?

Well, three ways one could look at the Debt deadline. Some companies mentioned on Cramer. My placement. 

1) NO resolution: Short on everything.

2) A resolution: REG, DGX, LH, 

3) Neutral: BX, FFIV, SNAK, EMB, 

 

Hyper volitility: RMAX, Z, TRLA, TSLA, 

I have no holdings in the above companies except for SNAK.  But may in the future. or may not. I am up 33% ytd, about 40% cash and have no great need to lose or gain for remainder of year. 



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Guru

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Date: Oct 6, 2013
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What terrible things to say on cc - I myself have committed infractions.



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Guru

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Date: Oct 6, 2013
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I am still about 23% in cash but I have been looking for buying opportunities. We are getting into the Fall to January period where the market will do well. If there are a few earnings disappointments on really good stocks I might pick up a few shares here and there.

BTW, I got a spanking from Mainlonghorn at CC:


Dear razorsharp,

You have received an infraction at College Confidential.

Reason: political post
-------
This post is definitely political and not allowed (I'm not saying I disagree with you, by the way!).
-------

This infraction is worth 1 point(s) and may result in restricted access until it expires. Serious infractions will never expire.

Original Post:
talk.collegeconfidential.com/...l
Quote:
Quote:
Is anyone else amazed at how well the market is holding up?
It actually went up two days ago because the reality is that the govt shutdown is not a real shut down and won't have much effect on the economy. This upset the Non-Negotiator In Charge so much that he tried talking down the stock market. He said he was concerned. Well, maybe if he started negotiating like he is supposed to do, he won't be so concerned and the feds can get back to work.
All the best,
College Confidential

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Guru

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Date: Oct 5, 2013
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Like what kinds of investments before the 17th?



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Date: Oct 5, 2013
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"slightly +"  fraction of 1%. Mostly on the solar and the food holdings. 

Don't know if the market will explode after the solution of the debt crisis. Older bro is working severe OT this week  at TBTF bank. My picks are not subject to federal debt or to ObamaCare. I suspect that the installation contractors for the solar will be pleased to see affordable HI. 

I'm getting some ideas for the investing the cash when as we approach Oct 17. 



-- Edited by longprime on Saturday 5th of October 2013 04:10:59 PM

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Guru

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Date: Oct 5, 2013
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Razorsharp:  Based on your discussions in cc, you were 23% in cash and investing in options in September.  What are you doing these days in the market?



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Guru

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Date: Oct 5, 2013
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Investors Business Daily changed it market call to Uptrend Under Pressure. That means you can still buy stocks but be careful.

As to my view, I think the market is getting ready to explode upwards.

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Date: Oct 5, 2013
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Depending on what is meant by slightly - I'm slightly down because of one stock that is getting hammered with the shutdown and furloughs.



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Date: Oct 5, 2013
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Slightly + this week on all trading accounts. 



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Date: Oct 2, 2013
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and I've been almost entirely fully invested save the last month. The problem with cash is that you only make money when the market crashes or at individual buying opportunities. 



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Guru

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Date: Oct 2, 2013
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I'm very heavily in cash right now - actually the whole year.  I've been waiting for that big pullback that hasn't occurred.  Well maybe over the next month or so.



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