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Post Info TOPIC: INvesting


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Date: Nov 8, 2013
RE: INvesting
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My solar stocks got hammered. Sold some and then got back in at a lower price but prices were still dropping. disbeliefStill got a cash cushion. YTD +33%.



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Date: Nov 7, 2013
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nope.

AH, Bought 100 @57.56 and 30mins later bought 100@55.86. Wanted to buy another 100@<54 but I guess I was timed out. SUNE  gains has mitigated some of today's SCTY losses. 

I think many investors are still thinking traditional valuation metrics. I don't get valuations of Social Media. 

Anyhow, I offset this risk by moving 50% of Variable annuities to money market since annuities can only be moved 1x/day.hmm Could have placed a ItM cover call this morning but got greedy. confuse

We'll see what's going to happen in BTH am and 1st hour of market. 



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Date: Nov 7, 2013
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I guess your nervousness about scty was well justified.  I hope you were out of the stock.



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Date: Nov 6, 2013
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TSLA say that they are constrained by not enough batteries. AH down to 157. May be attractive on a sharp drop? I stay away from anything over 100 because the risk:reward ratio is bad.  It is hard to add shares with a limited budget and on a falling stock.



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Date: Nov 6, 2013
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I bought HTZ today. It had good earnings but dropped too much. Rental car companies are creating oligopolies and pushing prices up. Tried to rent a car lately? You get screwed. That means the companies are making money.

I am not sure what to do with TSLA. I want to buy a little but the institutions seem to be selling it.

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Date: Nov 6, 2013
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I want to talk about money.  Do you want to give me some?  Everybody is talking about record inflows into the market.  How does it compare with the outflows in 2008 - 2009 and what percentage of that outflow has come back in?



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Date: Nov 6, 2013
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Any body want to talk about M-O-N-E-Y ??evileye

Got out of SCTY and then back into SCTY on the dip last week. Monday BIG run up and and quick pull back. TSLA misses earnings, Wed SCTY reports quarter=I am a bit nervous. evileye



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Date: Oct 31, 2013
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I've successful moved good portion of variable annuitys' comstock mutual funds to blackstone cash. I will offset this with more aggressive trading in the trading accounts by moving out of cash to stocks...And watch closely. 



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Date: Oct 31, 2013
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FR sees the low interest environment favors the richer and does little to help employment or economy. They are in a quandry and afraid to raise rates fearing that rates will kill housing, capital investments. evileye

 



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Date: Oct 26, 2013
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Blackstone pro sees signs of market speculation is the title of a cnbc video: http://www.cnbc.com/id/101143932.  From the title, it appears that Wien is very bearish.  If you watch the video, this isn't at all what he is saying.  CNBC has been putting misleading titles to a lot of their interview videos.

 

 


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http://www.cnbc.com/id/101142283

 

So what does this all mean?

 

1.  The market is too bullish - pessimism is at a 21 month low and optimism is at a 10 month high.  So what does that mean??  What has the market done over that time period?

 

2.  The market is trading at a 16.5 vs 15.8 historic multiple.  The historic multiple includes long periods of time with interest rates high.  What is the average multiple when interest rates are are as low as today?

 

3.  The 7 day rsi is above 70?  How about the 50 day or the 2 day for that matter.  These bozos will create anything to prove their point.

 

4.  I heard today on cnbc that people are talking too much about $1000 stocks like goog.  $1000 stocks make some market prognosticators nervous.  I wonder if BRK makes them nervous.

 

I don't know if the market is going to go up or down and neither does anybody else.  Anybody who claims they do is a charlatan.



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Date: Oct 25, 2013
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I think Congress is pushing the limit of tolerance for debt and budget.  Every economic group has got to give up something, and a just little bit more. evileye

IMO, I'd just not prepare to test the 5 reasons. The TBTF bank bro works for, was pretty scared. I have made my profit for the year, and more than willing to back way off on risk exposure, even if I give up another 10%. The real question in my mind is whether if I can get out fast enough? confuse



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Date: Oct 24, 2013
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I agree with this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYsomjHm75c



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Date: Oct 24, 2013
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I don't like the Icahn. I don't like Ackerman either. 

Thinking about getting entirely out. Everyone thinks markets will go up some more. My variable annuities (GWI) is beating the SP by a wide margin and they are coming up to anniversery date- I can go cash and lock in the gains rather than chance a fall and increasing risk.  Good friends, WHAT DO YOU THINK?

IMO, This is a very high market for an US Economy that is weak, Europe barely on its knees, and China struggling with both of its big export partners. Yet the many of the companies that I inves



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Date: Oct 24, 2013
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I love when Icahn speaks about stocks that he and I own.



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Date: Oct 23, 2013
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It doesn't help that the ceo of nflx said the stock price was absurd.  I'd stay away.  Maybe it will get a bounce but it may be too quick except for the extremely nimble to profit from.



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Date: Oct 23, 2013
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NFLX is a wild card to me. It could be that Ichan's sales has "broken the back" of the stock and it will go much lower. Or it could be that the stock is oversold and an excellent buying opportunity.

If I had to choose I would say it broke the back. The stock is so overvalued it is crazy. It earned a little over 50 cents per share this quarter but the stock is in the 300s. That's a crazy valuation.

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Date: Oct 23, 2013
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Instead of waiting for the SP to drop 10%, NFLX may be stock that will take a significant bounce. If I was to venture into NFLX, I'd watch it very carefully tomorrow starting from prehours trades . May bounce immediately or take a further drop from margin calls. 



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Date: Oct 22, 2013
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wow - what a drop from 389 to 321.  I almost bought it at 330, good thing that I didn't!  I did buy aapl today when it was around 317 though.  I don't see anything in front of us over the next few months that are going to take the market down.  I think we'll get to at least 1800 in the s&p.



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Date: Oct 22, 2013
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sold some PRI bc it was approaching hi and needed to rebalance to cash. Still no change in my holding in NWN. Dividend rate is still very good @4.2%. I may sell some when it spikes on dividend payout, Nov 15.(exdiv Oct 31) and rebuy when it drops. October in Oregon has been exceptionally fair. 10+ days without rain and no rain in forecast until Oct 31, which means no one is heating. 



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Date: Oct 22, 2013
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Yesterday I shorted NFLX after hours on earnings run up. I shorted at 390. In a few minutes it went to 374 so I got out for some fast money. I figured the stock would run up today during regular hours when the institutions come to play. What I didn't expect was Carl Ichan to start dumping the stock. It closed down at about 318. If I had just held the short, wow, would I have been a happy camper. Too bad I can't predict the future.

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Date: Oct 22, 2013
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Everything seems so high, right now

I agree. I am caught between buy low/sell high on my targeted stocks for a few hundred vs holding cash without the risk. 



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Date: Oct 22, 2013
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Back into SCTY early Monday at $ 57 and eighth. Had a limit buy at 54 1/4 but forgot it expired last night. Solarcity for some reason collapsed in midmorning  to 53+  and quickly recovered. I'm down to about 33% cash. NWN and PRI are doing nicely and a good counter to the momentum-spec holdings. 



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wow, Fast and Furious  drop in NFLX . IBM did the same last week on bad earnings and future sales. China is miffed that IBM has a link to NSA, according to that traitor. 

 



-- Edited by longprime on Tuesday 22nd of October 2013 03:46:24 PM

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Date: Oct 22, 2013
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"Anybody buying aapl bweaning earnings?"

What is really annoying is that I just sold it, at 497.50. Paranoid about earnings coming up, they always seem to miss the mark. I'm not really sure what to buy right now, I wish I could figure out what's worthwhile, but everything seems so high right now.

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Date: Oct 21, 2013
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not me. Burned twice. Bleeding edge of technology is a dangerous place for someone who is afraid of heights. disbelief



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Date: Oct 21, 2013
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Anybody buying aapl bweaning earnings?



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Date: Oct 19, 2013
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I think a 10% is too optimistic. I'd settle for 3-5%. When companies fall 3-5-10%, often times this signals that there is something wrong with the company. A "correction" of 7-10% in the SPY, may signal something is fundamentally wrong with the economy. I try to work on the small dips in selected companies-buy low, sell high. 



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10% corrections happen on average every 2 years and occur more frequently than the average in aging bull markets.  We haven't had a 10% correction in 2 years



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10% is a lot. I'd shoot for 3-5% on SPY, DOW, or individual quality, best of breed, stock.



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I don't know when I've been that low (40%) on cash.  I did buy facebook yesterday and the q's 3 days ago.  I'm assuming that the hedge funds will pile into facebook until earnings on 10/30.  We'll have to see what happens after that.  I'm still waiting for that 10% correction that just doesn't seem to want to happen.



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Out of SCTY in afternoon.

IMO: Sell high, on advice from Cramer. Also needed to get back to 40% cash. I don't trust Congress to get a good compromise by Christmas and even if they did find a solution, it will again be down to the wire. Meanwhile,  consumers and business are going to withhold spending. It's going to be a bad 4th quarter. hmm

Anyone disagree?evileye



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Date: Oct 18, 2013
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IMO, This 4th Q, we will see a very sedate economy because of the TP's continuing threat and the Stupid Party refusal to be pro-economy. We just went through a self-imposed tax of $24billion on the economy in just 17days from a minority party that abhors taxes. Figure that one out. evileye

Consequently, we may see a downward trend in the IVV, ... until we get some type of resolution of the debt and budget. 



-- Edited by longprime on Friday 18th of October 2013 08:45:39 PM

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Date: Oct 17, 2013
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anyway. SCTY is up again today. biggrin I used to have more of this but sold a bunch a moon and a half ago..



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It's too short of a deal.no  The Stupid Party has survived to live another stupid day. It's going to be a sad 4th quarter. 



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Date: Oct 17, 2013
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The short term deal is done in congress but gold is up $25 today. Maybe I'm wrong on gold.

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No idea on Healthcare. Fundamentally I am against health insurance cos after paying for it faithfully and doing all the regular checkups then being denied at COBRA conversion to private individual insurance. Plus I was forced to have prostate surgery because the diagnosis was made.  Prostate is cancer that grows slowly and it is estimated that most( >>60%?) men will have prostate cancer at old age death. 

IMO: HI profit although regulated in my state, it is somewhat guaranteed. Competition is not necessarily based on cost efficiency but on denial of service, and advertisement $$. HI companies and their consultants have thought about this problem for a very long time, We are in the early phase for Boomers entering Medicare-which means the HI clients are leaving their service and the succeeding age groups are poorer, less in numbers, and without company sponsored HI. So if you were a HI company, inorder to survive, you would have to expand the number of potential clients or raise premiums on existing and wealthier clients while excluding pre-existing risks. The later is a loosing strategy. And the former, although smacks of socialism, makes them money and in a better light. evileye

The Stupid Party cannot see this. All they see is socialism and although a socialism wanted by Private Enterprise and General Public. 

I have said earlier, ObamaCare will be a boon to future entrepreneurs and for families-both good for USA.



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Date: Oct 17, 2013
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Wow Longprime - you're the bomb with those kinds of returns.  Apparently the investment discussion on cc has now become the healthcare stocks thread.  Anybody have any good healthcare stocks that they would like to share with those of us who are clueless?



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Going to be sad Christmas for USA if we are looking at Jan 15. I'm going to sell on upcoming pop and use that cash cautiously. 



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Date: Oct 17, 2013
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New hi on my IRA. +40% YTD. Financials up smile. SCTY up, up, and up on dilution. aww



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Date: Oct 16, 2013
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IBD changed it market outlook to "Confirmed Uptrend"

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Date: Oct 14, 2013
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s&p gaps down in evening trade but then works its way up to a positive close. That's some pretty good action. David Tepper is on CNBC at 8 am. EST.

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Date: Oct 14, 2013
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New high on my IRA trading account. I hate this politics affecting the markets. IMO I think that PBO should let the TP trip the wire: Showdown at High Noon, I'll be his darling and the Stupid Party be the townspeople. evileye



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Date: Oct 13, 2013
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The s&p futures are down almost 15 but as the bond market is not open tomorrow - the real day of concerned is tuesday



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Date: Oct 13, 2013
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Well, ole Bro is spending another weekend at the office. I wonder how many iterations TBTF bank can do? I read somewhere that banks keep their reserve funds in Treasury. If the you are unable to value Treasuries (MTM) does that mean your reserve capital is worthless? Does that also mean that US$ is worthless? These guys are playing with WMD's and they don't know it or refuse to believe it. Monday will be interesting. Gotta look what Intrade pricing.



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Date: Oct 13, 2013
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Tomorrow should be an interesting market day but Tuesday even more so.



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Date: Oct 12, 2013
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PBO is doing Boehner a favor. PBO probably saying, "You either deal with me now, because you really don't want to deal with the Senate." or

"Imagine that if you want to change existing law, What will the next Congress do or the next President to your changes, if your TP's brand of politics succeed. "

"This is blackmail. You know it too. USA has never given in to Blackmailers. I represent USA as its Head-of-State, and I will not give in to Blackmailers. Do you want me to make a precedent to future Presidents or give extraordinary powers to a minority of your Party?"

 



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Boehner says Obama won't budge. If it stays that way, GLD could pop when it opens next week.

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Speaking of blackmailing. Funniest thing I've read in ages.

 

A Very Long List of All The Things Obama Is Comparing Republicans To

 

183657511U.S. President Barack Obama pauses as he speaks during a press conference in the Brady Press Briefing Room of the White House on October 8, 2013 in Washington, D.C.

Photo by Alex Wong/Getty Images

President Obama held forth Tuesday afternoon at a lengthy shutdown-themed press conference at the White House, declaring yet again that he won't negotiate with Republicans until the partial government shutdown is over and Congress raises the debt ceiling. The president's opening remarks and the Q-and-A that followed failed to yield any major news—but it did, however, produce a long list of analogies that ranged from the common (House Republicans are acting like hostage-takers) to the, um, more creative (Republicans are like video game-loving homeowners who demand perks for paying their mortgage).

 

Without further ado, and in no particular order, here's a (no-doubt incomplete) list of all the things Obama either directly or indirectly compared Republicans to this afternoon. (Did I miss any? Let me know in the comments or

Employees Who Confuse Themselves For Kidnappers: "Think about it this way, the American people do not get to demand a ransom for doing their jobs."

Actual Kidnappers Demanding a Ransom: "We can't make extortion routine as part of our democracy. Democracy doesn't function this way. And this is not just for me; it's also for my successors in office. Whatever party they're from, they shouldn't have to pay a ransom either for Congress doing its basic job. We've got to put a stop to it."

Half-Kidnappers, Half-Pranksters: "The only thing that I will say is that we're not going to pay a ransom for America paying its bills. That's something that should be non-negotiable, and everybody should agree on that. Everybody should say one of the most valuable things we have is America's creditworthiness. This is not something we should even come close to fooling around with."

Habitual Hostage-Takers With a Flair For Hyperbole: "But at some point we've got to kind of break these habits and -- and get back to the point where everybody understands that in negotiations, there is give and there is take, and you do not hold people hostage or engage in ransom taking to get a hundred percent of your way, and you don't -- you -- you don't suggest that somehow a health care bill that you don't agree with is destroying the republic or is a grand socialist scheme."

Video Game-Loving Homeowners Who Demand Perks for Paying Their Mortgage: "You don't get a chance to call your bank and say I'm not going to pay my mortgage this month unless you throw in a new car and an Xbox." 

Homeowners Irrationally Choosing to Be Deadbeats: "And so when I read people saying, now, this wouldn't be a big deal; we should test it out; let's take default out for a spin and see how it rides -- and I -- I -- I say, imagine, in your private life, if you decided that I'm not going to pay my mortgage for a month or two. First of all, you're not paying money by not paying your mortgage. You're just a deadbeat. And you can anticipate that will hurt your credit, which means that in addition to the debt collectors calling, you're going to have trouble borrowing in the future. And if you are able to borrow in the future, you're going to have to borrow at a higher rate."

Potential Homebuyers Turned Would-Be Arsonists: "If you're in negotiations around buying somebody's house, you don't get to say, well, let's talk about the price I'm going to pay, and if you don't give the price then I'm going to burn down your house."

Small Business Employees Turned Would-Be Arsonists: "And -- and I think most people understand that. I mean, you know, I -- I was at a small business the other day and talking to a bunch of workers, and I said, you know, when you're at the plant and you're in the middle of your job, do you ever say to your boss, you know what, unless I get a raise right now and more vacation pay, I'm going to just shut down the plant; I'm not going to just walk off the job, I'm going to break the equipment -- I said, how do you think that would go? They all thought they'd be fired. And I think most of us think that. You know, there's nothing wrong with asking for a raise or asking for more time off. But you can't burn down the plant or your office if you don't get your way. Well, the same thing is true here."

Butchers: "Now, the Democrats have a budget that would eliminate sequestration -- this meat cleaver approach to deficit reduction -- and make sure that we're adequately funding basic medical research and Head Start programs and VA programs and a whole range of things that have been really hard-hit this year. ... So, let me just give you an example, very specific. Because of sequestration, because of the meat cleaver cuts that have been taking place over the course of this year, thousands of families have lost Head Start slots for their children."

Children: "They basically said, you know what? The president's so responsible that if we just hold our breath and say we're going to threaten default, then he'll give us what we want, and we won't have to give anything in return."

Children Who Believe in Magic: "Jack Lew has used extraordinary measures to keep -- make -- paying our bills over the last several months. But at certain point those emergency powers run out, and the clock is ticking. And I do worry that Republicans but also some Democrats may think that we've got a bunch of other rabbits in our hat. There's -- there comes a point in which if the Treasury cannot hold auctions to sell Treasury bills, we do not have enough money coming in to pay all our bills on time. It's -- it's -- it's very straightforward."

Children Who Believe In Magic and Maybe Werewolves: "But let me be clear -- no option is good in that scenario. There is no silver bullet. There is no magic wand that allows us to wish away the chaos that could result if, for the first time in our history, we don't pay our bills on time. ... So there are no magic bullets here."

BONUS: THINGS OBAMA COMPARED DEFAULT TO (With the Help of a Friend)—

A Nuclear Explosion: "Warren Buffett likened default to a nuclear bomb, a weapon too horrible to use."

BONUS#2: THINGS OBAMA COMPARED BOND BUYERS TO—

Skeptical Home Buyers (Hopefully of The Non-Arsonist Variety): "If you're buying a house, and you're not sure whether the seller has title to the house, you're going to be pretty nervous about buying it. And at minimum, you'd want a much cheaper price to buy that house because you wouldn't be sure whether or not you're going to own it at the end. Most of us would just walk away because no matter how much we like the house, we'd say to ourselves the last thing I want is to find out after I've bought it that I don't actually own it. Well, the same thing is true if I'm buying Treasury bills from the U.S. government."

BONUS #3: THINGS OBAMA COMPARED HIMSELF TO (In Reference to the Asia Trip He Canceled Because of the Shutdown)—

A CEO: "But, you know, in each of these big meetings that we have around the world, a lot of business gets done. And in the same way that a CEO of a company, if they want to close a deal, aren't going to do it by phone, you know, they want to show up and look at somebody eye to eye and tell them why it's important and shake hands on a deal, the same thing is true with respect to world leaders."

The Guest of Honor: "And so when -- it's almost like me not -- not showing up to my own party. I think it creates a sense of concern on the part of other leaders. But as long as we get through this, they'll understand it, and we'll be able to, I believe, still get these deals done."

(Transcript via Washington Post)

***Follow @JoshVoorhees and the rest of the @slatest team on Twitter.***



-- Edited by hope on Saturday 12th of October 2013 08:45:13 PM

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Date: Oct 12, 2013
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"Crap, I hate this market and should have stayed with my original premise of Not letting Congress affect my buy-sells."

yep. We put some a lump of money in an Ameriprise account back in the late nineties, every once in a while we look at it, and it's increased a lot--IMO, if you can't afford to lose money, you shouldn't be playing the stock market for the short term. If you're in it for the short term, let's call it what it is-- gambling.



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