Political & Elections

longprime · Guru

RE: INvesting

longprime · Guru

Jeesh. AAPL announced and dropped from 551 to 524. I thought I'd buy at 518. but on another board. Checked back and now it's 506.

longprime · Guru

Drop, Damnit, Drop.

NWN down by 0.4 . Ex-div 01/31. Yield 4.4%; 1.86/41.9

john doe · Guru

European and asian futures are dropping like a rock!

Razorsharp · Guru

I always sell naked puts. I would say 30 percent chance it will be in the money in March and I will own the stock. The low for last year was about 92 so I think it won't go below that. If I own it , I will start selling covered calls to enhance yield and I am cool with that.

john doe · Guru

so did you sell a naked put or a cash secured put? What was the probability of it expiring in the money?

Razorsharp · Guru

Bought BPT for dividend yield and bet that the trust won't run out of oil as soon as people are predicting.
Sold naked put on KSU. Railroad dropped big time. Could go lower but its a railroad damn it and they are slow and steady growth companies usually since they can control their rates etc. I just sold one March put since I might end up owning the stock which would be ok.

john doe · Guru

Very painful day. Just listening to Cramer. Monday will be a very interesting day - CAT in the morning, AAPL at night. If they disappoint, Tuesday may be a good buying opportunity.

longprime · Guru

Friday 24. Mostly out of the momentums early Thursday. Picked up some more gas utility, insurance, and another 10 shares of aapl @550, average cost @539.

IMO: I want to pick up another 10sh of aapl if it gets down ~540. Electricity will be scarce in the western states-no rain/no snow=no hydro storage for power to ship to CA. Which means that more nat gas will be used for local power and solar will be more prevalent. Hopefully Monday will also be down markets.

longprime · Guru

Just the article.

john doe · Guru

Longprime: Did you read any of the economics papers that Lo wrote?

longprime · Guru

Another idea that thinks that it can predict the market. For 2013, I beat the SP for 11 months, then the 12th, I only matched it. But it was fun, stressful, and gives me something to do.

Mom, got kicked off of Hospice this week smile

Z, TSLA, SCTY move in the opposite way of my predictions. I could be a rich man by now. evileye disbelief

john doe · Guru

Interesting article: http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/13/investing/stock-picking-andrew-lo.moneymag/index.html?iid=HP_River

longprime · Guru

I thought Musk said earlier summer 2013 that it is parts constrained @ 20,000 units max. So how did it get more units?

john doe · Guru

It is difficult to be right with something like tsla which is news and momentum driven. I sold some stuff today but still have some long positions. I plan on waiting to buy some more after a few days.

longprime · Guru

Last week I reduced holdings. Some I took small gains and others I took a loss rather than taking bigger a bigger loss. I was very wrong with TSLA and SCTY.

longprime · Guru

Long. I will always be long in the varible and indexed annuities because they have annual step up feature of minimum 5% or market value which ever is larger. The trading accounts , I am trading, mostly known volatile companies. A few for their dividends.

john doe · Guru

so are all you long the market or getting nervous and reducing your positions?

longprime · Guru

sold last week, TSLA @~144. after losing 10 pts.

NEST is being bought by GOOGLE. DS worked for one of its key personnel.

busdriver11 · Guru

Shoulda bought my latest stock, longprime, Ehealthinsurance. Went up over 20 percent in one day last week. Don't know if I'd buy it now, seems overrated. I sold it after it went up because I had no idea whatsoever why it popped.

Are things looking scary out there? Is this the big crash? Should we sell, sell, sell? Or just hang on and hope?
Think I won't even look at the market, whatever I do will be a mistake.

longprime · Guru

Monday 13. Near full moon. Dow -181. MF and annuities are fully invested and reallocated to equities as of the 10th. Trading accounts, I got nervous last week and sold the high betas, but took a small position in aapl when it was 533.

longprime · Guru

I don't know if Ive mentioned this: Older Bro works at the other TBTF NYC bank, at the corporate level, at one time in risk management. He had also worked previously at Chase and FRB-NY. One of his on going complaints is the silos-fiefdoms of the Bank. One fiefdom theoretically bankrupted this bank by taking inordinate risks. I had worked in a subsidiary of this Bank and we were told to always do "good business". Bureaucracy is another issue. And then there is pay issue that rewards profits at any cost vs good banking practices, morals and ethics.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/10/business/madoffs-trail-lost-in-a-blizzard-of-paper.html?_r=0

"What the documents do show, however, is a huge bureaucracy where employees stuck to their own silos and did not communicate well with others. Suspicions were there, but so were profits, and the profits seem to have outweighed any other concerns. Many people simply filled out and filed forms, oblivious to what those forms might, or might not, indicate...."

[sorry about the print size]

comment: We have to remember that Banks are a leverage business that is nothing more than a legalized ponzi/pyramid scheme.

"

Razorsharp · Guru

That jackass federal prosecutor just stole even more money from JP Morgan under the claim that JP Morgan should have protected investors from Madoff. Meanwhile there are no consequences to the federal agency responsible for regulating Madoff even though the SEC was tipped off about him many years prior to the public discovery of his actions. Maybe some federal employees should be put in prison.

longprime · Guru

That's what people and regulatory agencies said about Bernie. "Remember Bernie", he even screwed his wife and sons. He is a sociopath. Many other people bragged about the returns that Bernie got. You may want to consider keeping your returns toned down, you're making me a jelly wreck. confuse

-- Edited by longprime on Monday 6th of January 2014 10:19:46 PM

busdriver11 · Guru

Of course, who can forget Bernie.

But this guy is the most scrupulous person ever. He has no interest in more clients, and you can follow every single thing he does on your account since it's with a major brokerage firm. He doesn't brag about his returns (because he's never satisfied), but we do, because we're so impressed. Why, oh why, didn't we give him more money!

longprime · Guru

Great. But always to "Remember Bernie"

busdriver11 · Guru

We can follow along everything he does online, plus we get statements sent every time he trades. The account is with a major investment firm. We also get quarterly statements and a massive year end statement, documenting everything prodigiously. Can't retire now because we can't get a pension until 55 (then it's reduced if you retire before 60). He was my husband's best friend from high school, so he's known him for about 40 years. Funny, though, every time we compliment him on the return, he makes a comment about how it could be much worse the next year. He's never content, which I guess, is a good thing. And who knows, everything we all have could come crashing down again like in 2007 and 2008. But the next crash, I won't sell anything to lock in those losses.

I tried to get the friend to take my sons account, and he wouldn't, as he hasn't taken new clients in two years, none. But he recommended that we just buy and sell the same things that he's been buying for us. The first time I did it (and I probably already posted this a couple of times in this forum, because it drives me nuts), within two days the stock crashed, and my friend sold. So I sold. I'd been doing really well with my kids account before that, and finally brought it up into positive territory. I think I'm going to try really hard to stay away from individual stocks from now on, they are so tempting, but so risky.

longprime · Guru

Wow.

Does he tell you what he buying or selling?

Does he show you a yearend statement?

Does he brokerage statement?

Can you pull the retire now?

How did you find this guy?

busdriver11 · Guru

I'm pretty happy with how our friend did for us, he invests our Roth and has gotten over a 19% annualized return over the last 18 or so years. Last year he got 46.3% return, which is far better than I did with our 401K---23.9%, because we keep about 20% in cash. If only we could have some more years like this one.

longprime · Guru

Last day of 2013. Rebalancings and taking 2013 gains/losses complete. Those who are contributing in retirement funds, Thursday and and Friday oughta be traditionally, big up days.

longprime · Guru

I hope.

Can't see to much of headwind till March when the Stupid Party does something to the Debt.

john doe · Guru

I guess this is a Santa Claus rally.

longprime · Guru

Can upgrade per TDAmeritrade approval,Tier 2, Cash-security options: covered calls (write), write cash covered puts, and purchase options.

john doe · Guru

Such as?

longprime · Guru

So, I can upgrade option trading. Of course options have a different kind of risk. Gotta pull out the options book.

longprime · Guru

so, maybe I should check on Monday.

john doe · Guru

" Does your brokerage allow options inside qualified accounts? "

Yes - but I cannot use margin.

longprime · Guru

Can only do covered call's. I imagine bc IRA's must have something physical? Maybe bc brokerage wants to have 100% collateral in case calls-puts go south? Maybe because you are limited in how much you can contribute to IRA per year. Don't really know but TDAmeritrade limits me to covered calls only. Does your brokerage allow options inside qualified accounts?

john doe · Guru

Why can you short orcl in an ira account?

longprime · Guru

And, if I can find a way to short ORCL in an IRA. (ORCL is the primary contractor for CoverOregon ACA) . ORCL has signed up ZERO people online. All enrollments are being done by 400+ temps and administrators are recommending that private purchases be done via providers website and not thru CoverOregon.

longprime · Guru

I have an algorithm that Kinda depends on the phase of the Moon. How wifey feels towards me, How wifey feels on her mother. How my mother feels. The weather. If ds is having an interesting week, And of course if the Dog still needs my attention. Other than that, I have variable annuities with a guaranteed income feature, that mitigates much of the risk. Beginning monday I will be moving annuities to ~80% (may go 90%) equities in all sectors, because they have locked in the 2013 valuations. Trading accounts will be moving to 60-75% equities, speculative and opportunistic.

From what I learned and gathered from TBTF banker bro, Their guess is no better than anyone's elses guess. The trick is to not lose in an up market and not too lose too much in a down market.

john doe · Guru

I don't know what is going to happen. Maybe there will be a correction - maybe right away since I think that most who think there is going to be one, assume it will be in the March time frame. This often means it most likely won't happen then. I guess that sophisticated investors know how to handle these situations. Longprime, how do you handle them?

longprime · Guru

And after New Year's, what happens? Are we already seeing some buying? Definitely a rebalancing.

john doe · Guru

Stocks will make a move but not a big one over the next few weeks or so. The S&P is having a hard time breaking through 1810. I don't expect more that 1 - 2% move if that much.

longprime · Guru

IF stocks make a big move +, Gold will be -.

Wow, was gold under margin calls? Or investors worried that holding gold will get expensive against US$ or stocks?

john doe · Guru

Perhaps its time to buy a little gold

longprime · Guru

Budget passed Senate. So now we have a Budget.

Bernanke gave his swan song, saying what everyone expected him to say.

Jobs seem to be up.

USA has a middle and lower economic class gets pseudo tax cut in lower gas/oil pricing continuing for probably for the next several years.

Food commodities are plentiful.

Housing is plentiful.

Debt is cheap.

Dividends are relatively high and if you have enough money you could have dividends pay the interest on home and auto loans.

Computering and electronics are cheaper.

Retailing is only so-so but we do have a gentrifying population.

longprime · Guru

In, today with Z illow. A real estate-economy-social media play. (disclaimer, ds works at zillow, I have no inside information.) Sales improving, advertising on CNBC, hiring, and everyone wants to know about their home and future home. I had hoped to wait till after xmas but it has run-up last few days off its lows.

-- Edited by longprime on Tuesday 17th of December 2013 08:50:30 PM

john doe · Guru

Any good opportunities tomorrow

longprime · Guru

ACA-ObamaCare-CoverOregon: Oracle now mass media, outed as the implementer of Oregon's ACA. Enrollment by online=0. Oracle has 150 people + their main tech gurus, working on the problems. Contract of $48million. Oregon emergency hired 400 people to manually contact, advice, enroll, data entry. ORCL is going to take a Sh*t.

http://www.oregonlive.com/business/index.ssf/2013/12/cover_oregon_portability_insur.html

I am under the portability program. Larry Ellison is going to be sunk.

-- Edited by longprime on Monday 16th of December 2013 09:42:58 PM