Political & Elections

john doe · Guru

RE: INvesting

Razorsharp · Guru

What's on the menu?

john doe · Guru

I may start nibbling tomorrow. Definitely next week - on Wednesday.

longprime · Guru

Any sign of weakness in the market, I'm buying more.

Wait. till after Xmas. IMO

john doe · Guru

If the budget passes and the market goes down, the boneheads on tv and the radio will say it is because taper is coming sooner than later. If the budget doesn't pass and the market goes down, those same boneheads will say it is due to uncertainty of the budget process. They'll have an excuse either way. I expect the first case. It is all BS and an opportunity for traders to increase volatility so they can make more money - nothing more. In the big scheme of things, the market is going to go up. Any sign of weakness in the market, I'm buying more.

longprime · Guru

"probably" is only 50.1% . evileye We'll see what happens when the first tell (Congress votes on Friday on Budget).

john doe · Guru

Lots of people think that, which is probably why it won't happen that way.

longprime · Guru

Justifying my reason to be in cash. Besides, Boehner, is PO with his conservative caucus. MF managers have seen a big year and need to close their books on a big upside...and they will be going to cash and reinvest cautiously and incrementally in 2014.

john doe · Guru

What's starting?? The big move down - biggest since November. Scary!

longprime · Guru

12:20PDT (15:20EDT) Dow -110. It's starting. evileye

john doe · Guru

I always thought stock options also had leverage so I guess I'm still confused as to the advantage of futures.

Razorsharp · Guru

The advantage of futures is leverage. You can put down $4K or $5K and trade futures with a value of 15 times greater. That means you can make a lot of money on small moves or lose a lot of money on small moves. The advantage of options is known risk if you are a buyer. You can only lose the cost of the option if you buy a call or a put. Owning options does not give you leverage but it will let you participate in dollar for dollar moves in a much higher priced stock.

john doe · Guru

I love this article particularly the bonehead comments at the end. The ignorance is hysterical: http://www.marke****ch.com/story/ghost-of-1929-crash-reappears-2013-12-06?pagenumber=1

john doe · Guru

What is the advantage of futures options vs stock options?

Razorsharp · Guru

Futures means leverage. I can hold one e-mini S&P worth $90K but have only about $4K in my account for every contract. You can own a stock forever but a futures contract expires. You can roll over your position to a later month and keep your position going to resemble owning a stock or owning the SPY etf.

Each point of the emini is worth $50. If the S&P500 increases 10 points, I make $500. Given that my investment in the contract is about $4400, my return is $500 on $4400. That's a pretty good return. Of course if the market goes down ten then I loose that amount and my loss is a big percentage.

The same is true for my return on options. If I sell a call on the emini with a strike price of 1805 and get 20 points I get $1000 in my account. My break even is 1775. If the market is below then I lose money. If the market is above 1775 but below 1805 I keep the call premium but still make money because the call premium is more than the amont of the decrease in the futures price. If the market is above 1805 then I lose the futures contract but I keep the call premium.

john doe · Guru

I'm not at all familiar with futures. How long do you hold them for and you can write covered calls on them? How different are they from stock?

Razorsharp · Guru

I'm writing covered calls on S&P futures trying to generate some revenue.

john doe · Guru

Bought some msft and sold some calls - not something I've done for a very long time.

john doe · Guru

I may buy some qqq, dia and gm. Maybe even some msft.

longprime · Guru

Not much. Sitting on ~30 cash in variable annuities; ~40-60%cash in trading IRA's. I may tiptoe back in solar and zillow (son works there) and may be after Xmas.

john doe · Guru

What are all you hotshot investors doing these days? Buying or selling the jobs number tomorrow? How do you think the market will behave over the next 2 - 4 months?

Razorsharp · Guru

The system blocked out t-w-a-t in the above link. Too funny.

-- Edited by Razorsharp on Thursday 5th of December 2013 03:39:19 PM

john doe · Guru

http://blogs.marke****ch.com/thetell/2013/12/02/why-u-s-stocks-could-gain-another-18-by-november-2014/

longprime · Guru

Observation: FredMeyer, Black Friday Sale: Apple Mini iPad, 16G, $50 off, still had them available at 7:00am. I bought a Kindle Fire HD (8.9") for $179 discounted $100. What is surprising is that both units were available two hours after opening. Not a good sign. confuse

john doe · Guru

Interesting recession indicator:http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenfisher/2013/10/30/meet-the-magic-indicator-the-lei-dont-lie/

longprime · Guru

Invest in yourself and your friends. Scored this couple of weeks with Pineapple Guava (20#), Persimmons (20#) and today a gallon of raw milk. YUMMY.

SamuraiLandshark · Guru

I used ehealth when searching for individual health plans a few years ago.

Easy to use.

If I had money to invest, I would have bought this on October 1st when the exchange worked so poorly.

busdriver11 · Guru

I actually meant I'd asked it on another thread, which was the ACA thread, but realized it was more appropriate to be asked elsewhere. Motley Fool sure seems to like it. But of course, one always wonders if they missed the upward movement.

john doe · Guru

On cc, you mentioned that you had asked this question on another site. I assumed it was here but apparently not. I personally know nothing about this stock. It certainly is up a lot today. This is motley fool's take on it: http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/11/24/5-stocks-with-triple-digit-pes-that-this-value-inv.aspx

busdriver11 · Guru

Anyone familiar with a stock called eHealth, EHTH? They are the ones who own the eHealthInsurance.com website. Very high P/E (over 150), but they have tripled in the last year and seem like they will be getting even more business when the Obamacare govt website still doesn't work.

john doe · Guru

http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/11/21/running-of-the-bears.html

longprime · Guru

QIHU

john doe · Guru

I've thought about China but haven't pulled the trigger on it yet.

longprime · Guru

fxi

john doe · Guru

I'm buying xlf and xlv

longprime · Guru

What are you going to buy?

I read something today that money is moving out of indexes and into MF and stocks. Relatively small amounts but could be a pivot point. Me, I may go to some indexes and hedge with some deep covered calls. Really should chill until after Xmas.

john doe · Guru

The market is still going up. I think it will continue. I'll probably buy something tomorrow.

longprime · Guru

BD, we are retired and no longer can add to the retirement accounts. Although we are not drawing on the retirement accounts, I don't like or want a significant value fall. If I can mitigate a decrease in value by giving up an upside, I'll do that. If there is a drop in the markets, I would rather build my accounts from my current value and with a lot of cash, rather than build from a lower account value and no cash.

I am more worried about our political situation rather than the overall economic situation. I am sorry but we have increasing levels of political terrorism which is affecting my thinking. evileye

The Annuitys' Income Account will not be affected other than the succeeding years will be limited to the guaranteed increases until the Actual Account exceeds that of the Income account. confuse

From now until Jan 02, 2014, we will have many MF examining their accounts. Do they go to cash and preserve their YTD gains of +20% or take a chance to increase their gains by another 1-2%? November trading is done. And December's trading will be affected by budget-debt negotiations and ACA, of which there will be barely 2 weeks of Congress.

busdriver11 · Guru

Wow, that's a lot to sell. Though I don't think I would invest much in solar stocks. We're still 80% equity funds/20% cash (actually pays about 2-4% annual rate), and I'm not touching anything because I think there is still so much money not in the market. So many people I talk to have held their money out, just waiting for the drop. Will it happen? I don't know, but if it does, I'm sure I'll miss it!

I figure even if the usual bickering goes on, it isn't going to change anything. There's still easy money coming via Bernanke, and people are starting to ignore all the end of the world predictions and fighting.

john doe · Guru

You can buy and sell in these accounts without any penalties? So you believe all the charlatans, I mean "gurus" that the market is in a bubble and the end is near?

longprime · Guru

Sold 90% of positions in trading accounts to cash

longprime · Guru

In the deferred, variable annuities, it is called "transfer" and is allowed without penalty or restriction, so the answer is, Yes. I try to increase their assets. The mutual fund companies may not like it, but not my concern. The Income Account portion of the annuities are protected on the downside and are reset on the anniversary-one more day for 2 annuities, after which I will reallocate to about 25% cash to minimize any downs - capitalize on lower pricing. wink

Do I believe in the talking heads, No. I was weighted heavily into solar stocks, with SCTY falling considerably Monday and today. If solar stocks falls some more I could jeopardize this year's gains. We are getting close to the holidays and the Dec's Budget negotiations again. The Stupid Party is determined to ruin the Holidays. Keep in mind that most of the middle class wealth are held by Boomers, and it is doubtful that we want to see another 2000, 2001, or 2008-better be in cash than precious metals, bonds or stocks.

-- Edited by longprime on Tuesday 19th of November 2013 02:47:58 PM

john doe · Guru

So you have an annuity where you can move money around. Why would you move it into cash, and trading accts into equity?

longprime · Guru

A few reasons: The newer variable annuities are mutual fund based and as such the funds/shares are revalued/allocated only at close. Any movements in the day are realized without recourse. The annuities are getting close to their anniversary/reset date. For annuity purposes, your withdrawal amount is determined at the annuity date going further. For my situation, the annuities act like a hedge and longterm investment vehicles. I will pay higher fees, in return, I get an account death benefit; A guarantee annual step-up to either market value or to Income value plus 5%; No trading fees and unlimited trades. If you look at the annuity fees vs my trading accounts, the Trading accounts probably costs me more because I trade fairly frequently. Finally I get some professional management in the annuity.

The annuities are within 30 days of reset/anniversary. They are up ~23% from last anniversary. Suppose the market tanks to 0% gain before the reset day and stays at there till the reset. Moving to cash now protects the gains, giving up any upside gains but definitely protecting the downside. After the reset, if the account value drops below the Annuity value, the annuity payout will be based on the annuity value going forward. If the account value exceeds the annuity value, the annuity payout will based on account value which is now converted to the annuity value. SEE YOUR ADVISOR.

Now that we are pretty much in forced retirement mode (caretakers of parents) I am more concerned with the downside having got cooked in 2001 and 2008. We no longer have the luxury of time and dollar costing.

The trading accounts are a minority to the retirement and annuities. The use of trading accounts is my attempt to nitro the retirement and to counter inflation and deflation.

-- Edited by longprime on Thursday 14th of November 2013 04:20:52 PM

-- Edited by longprime on Thursday 14th of November 2013 04:25:09 PM

longprime · Guru

GO 0 0 0 0, Stupid.

Anyway, Cramer said, When he had a winning year, the last two months he would go to cash and day trade.

Moving more annuity to cash and trading accounts out of cash into equity. Thinking about XVZ, VXZ

john doe · Guru

It will be interesting to see how Janet Yellin impacts the market tomorrow. I wouldn't be surprised if the stupid party tries to hold up the nomination and screw up the markets.

longprime · Guru

No on TWTR.

I bought some FB a few days after IPO. In and out a few of times. The last In took me a longtime to recover some of the losses. Moderate loss . I understand FB, but thinking about de-enrolling FB because I get so much junk from people I barely know. evileye DS has blocked me. confuse DS is in 100sh@26.

john doe · Guru

In CC, the investment posts are focusing on ipos and particularly TWTR. Has anybody here bought any? Has anybody bought any ipo and how did it work out?

longprime · Guru

Gold is down again to 1285. I want some. Have you ever held 24K, 1oz. Amazing how small it is yet so heavy. It initially feels cold but quickly warms to your body temp. Put it in your right trouser pocket and it will counter weight your swing. Put it in your left pocket and everyone will know you got more than your allotment.

john doe · Guru

Well the market supposedly sold off because of the good gdp number that underneath wasn't that great. We're back to good news is bad news and bad news is good. I almost bought spy, qcom and fb at the close but decided to wait for the jobs number tomorrow. Hopefully the selloff will continue tomorrow and I can buy some stock.