Political & Elections

The point is if you are buying or selling stock - any stock, you must have a view of the market as a whole going forward.  Regardless of the stock, when the market as a whole takes a dive, virtually all stock will go down, so if you're buying, you must implicitly have a positive view of the market.  If you're buying and do not have a positive view of the market, you're making a big mistake.

My interests went elsewhere after AAPL. Today, do I have a conviction on AAPL-No, I don't. They are no longer unique although they do have market share and probably will be very big in Asia-China. The share price is too much for me. 

Do stocks go up and down with the market? You do have Yahoo or  something similar where you can compare charts of companies and indexes? 

I would tend to think that most stocks go up and down pretty much with the market.  When people panic, they sell everything.

So what's your point? Unless you are a short player, don't you want to own the  stock(s) of choice when the market goes up and out of the stock when the market goes down? So tell me which company/index will go up or down. I should have panic'd in early 2008 but I held and relied on the professional MF people. Who would have guessed that some of the largest and best rated companies in the World became insolvent or close to insolvency in a matter of months or days. It was a near thing that a handful of Republican Congressmen voted for TARP and Stimulus Act of 2009. 

The best, the brightest, and the most highly paid people did do wrong in the building of the credit bubble and its collapse. 

i had strong conviction with aapl, at that time and tolerated the negative until i lost the conviction. i have no idea about the future. i choose my picks that i hope will increase in value not what the market will do.

I will admit that there is a rough correlation in the long term but not so on the short term. Isn't the goal is to beat the market either when the market is up or down both on the short term and long term? I am up 25-30% YTD  on my two primary trading accounts vs SP500 is up 17% (I don't track it, something I heard on CNBC). Do you think I should let my stock picks ride, take some off, short, or double down? 

When a stock takes a jump, 20-30% in a matter of a couple days or weeks and certainly in a few months, How long do you want to hold that stock? Do you take your gains (or losses), let it ride , sit on the sidelines, reinvest? 

Let me apologize now. I am not trying to be evasive but my trading style, risk tolerance, and stock picks is particular to me and has changed. Your choices and philosophy is yours-own it. 

The point is if you are buying or selling stock - any stock, you must have a view of the market as a whole going forward. 

OK, I do. "Markets will go up and down. Stocks will go up and down" I am a fair UP market guy and mediocre Down market guy. I want to beat the Market when it is going up and not lose as much when the Market goes down. If I care a lot about the markets, I'd buy /sell an Index. 

If you're buying and do not have a positive view of the market, you're making a big mistake.

Depends on what you are buying. In 2008, I should have been buying short indexes, just as GoldmanSachs was doing in against their CDO's. I don't care what the Market is doing-I only care what My Portfolio is doing. I would be pleased to get 2x the yield of 10 year Treasuries , ~5-8% in an down market. I would be happy to get 12+% in an up market. And be ecstatic to beat the SP500. Currently I am ecstatic. Do YOU think I should risk choosing a loser, a winner, or go neutral? 

-- Edited by longprime on Friday 6th of September 2013 09:19:12 PM

-- Edited by longprime on Friday 6th of September 2013 09:20:08 PM

I've heard it said that to make money you need to learn how to accept losses.  Looks to me like you sold just before a breakout to 70.

You keep saying that I sold just before it broke out. Regrettably I sold before it broke out to 171, but I sold without knowing the future and I sold with a profit. I sold AAPL at 50 something, twice. Each time taking a 20 point loss. That is why sometimes its called gambling. 

I've heard it said that to make money you need to learn how to accept losses.  Looks to me like you sold just before a breakout to 70.

"I  was willing to make a profit but I was not willing to take a loss.  This is different from your statement."  I don't see how.  You were willing to take a $3 loss  with a stop loss at 50.  It looks like you went with your gut and not the rule that you set - the stop loss of 50 - why?

IF, I had used the Magic 8 Ball, I would know for sure that I would've held until 171. 

Cramer 9/05/2013, has a good show today. his theme: When to Buy and When to Sell. 

So, JD, do you think TSLA will go to 200, in the near future?

It looks like you were willing to potentially lose $3 to make $3

I was willing to make a profit but I was not willing to take a loss.  This is different from your statement.

I am however willing go negative on NWN because I think it is near the bottom and I hope to make 3. Taking a loss or profit implies that one has exited the position. 

Do you take Cramer's advice and has it helped?

Sometimes. His advice basic manual is the same as most other people's advice. Can't go wrong in, "buy low-sell high"

Has it helped me be a better investor, Yes it has, because he always repeats the basics vs a book or seminar that are a once thru. 

Let's take TSLA because I traded in it a few months ago because I may have read something about it on PopMech, SciAm, WSJ, or heard about it on TV-Radio, or I was just trying to be green. Maybe it was when Boeing and GM was having troubles with the lithium batteries that TSLA-Musk offered to give some "free" advice. ... I was In at 53 and out at 56, in 3 days. I made 300 on an investment of 5300. My downside risk was minimal and at most a stop-loss at 50. Today TSLA low~165 and it is the same company with the same sales projections and the same automobile pricing. And if you sold at the high of ~171 you made a profit of 6 or about 3.6% ROI whereas I made a profit of 5.6% .

For my portfolio, 100shares of TSLA @165 is Too rich and Too much capital in 1 stock with higher downside risk than upside risk-IMO. YMMV.

The second big issue I keep in mind is that I trade within a Traditional IRA. So all of the profits, dividends, and my initial contribution will be taxed at probably 22% Federal and whatever for State upto 9%. For any losses-I own 100%. 

Why did you buy these stocks?

so what is your entry point on each?

where do you expect the values to go?

what is your exit point? 

How much are you willing to lose?

No, I don't and I am not an professional adviser. 

I have lost money in stocks; Maybe 3 of 5 of my picks have been losers, 1 of 5 moderate gain, and 1 of 5 big winners that made the other four look very sad. As tCC said, "outright gambling".

Go for sure things first-like a washlet bidet. The investment is $300. You can ponder the universe of stocks and get washed at the same time. Your ROI is in the savings for TP and trees which make the air you breathe while starving the microbes that consume oxygen to breakdown the cellulose. 

First rule: Don't lose money you can't afford to lose. 

exception to rule 1: A few times in life you got to "shoot-the-moon" Which I wish DS would do for a GF. 

Now that you have asked, ...

The best investment I have ever made is a washlet bidet. Less than $300. We use much,much less TP which we all know, has been getting more costly and smaller sheets. The device has been especially helpful in keeping our senior parents clean, without which we would not been able to keep my mother in her own  home.

The second investment, not yet proven, is a 50cc scooter. Most of my solo driving is intown, <40 speed limit, and within 4 miles. If I am able to squeeze out another 3 years out of the 99Civic and cut the number of fill-ups on this car by 1/4th, I would be breaking even at year 3, and profit thereafter. The big IF is that I don't get into a major crackup. 

I started at 41.25 and the low buy was at 40.42. No one can determine the low just as no one can know what is the high. 

I am frustrated with Zillow, I've been exiting and then it goes up again by a 3 dollars. I like Zillow because it is disruptive, a new tool to the general public and to realtors. I first heard about Zillow from CC, a few years ago,  it was featured on Mad Money, and DS recently started to work for them. Buy companies that are hiring. Currently my issue with Z is that the stock is  parabolic and there seems to be no end to its upward tragectory-but it will stop, somewhere.  I am out of Zillow, a bit too soon. I told spouse that we can afford gains but less able to afford losses. 

Disclaimer: Most of my picks I lose money.

disclaimer: YMMV. As the advertisement says, I trade My way.

I trade about 0-4x a week depending on the price of the stock and the amount of risk I want to take. NwN is my local gas utility and I use their gas not only for their gas but also the electricity generated from the gas purchased by Portland General, my electric utility, and who is phasing out the Boardman coal fired and installing peaking gas generated electricity at NWN gas storage location. Three of months ago NWN was high then summer comes along, the Fed says it will begin tapering, and x-div. I am using the same amount of gas, the same electricity, the only difference is the stock price. If I can get 5% ROI return in 6 months plus 1 or 2 dividends, I will pleased. That's a 12-14% annualized return with fairly low risk and if I only get the dividends, that is still a 4% yield. 

Do you take Cramer's advice and has it helped?

You guys sound knowledgeable so I'm considering you as the pros. - so what are you buying or selling and why?

What good stock picks and rationale for those picks do you pros have?  Where is the market going from here over the next month, the next 6 months?

I missed the show, but that seems ridiculous.  i pulled our credit reports a few months and started process of correcting erroneous info. I wonder how many folks have wrong  stuff on their  reports?

They have probably been banned for writing something that was painfully obvious but people afraid to post. 

If I had some, then sure, I would. Sorry. Not much help, there. 

I bought TSLA at ~53 and a few days later sold ~56. Which was a nice little run considering where it was in the previous month. A week later-BAM.

I was then eyeing it at ~90, 110, 120, 130, 140, 150. TSLA is a open sore  for me this year.

Family friend in Beaverton OR says that he sees a few Teslas. Beaverton-Hillsboro, [Silicon Forest, Intel} is spreadout like SV and a vehicle is a must. OR also gives big tax credit while having a ~11% income tax for high wages vs 9% for normal people. OR also incentivized companies to install chargers. 

Seattle is different.