Political & Elections

Pretty good day. Up almost 1%. Still have 40% cash which is too much. 

both

Wow - you're old!!  I'm only 62.

 

"I assume you are a cash investor, not purchasing options?"  - I guess that each have there good and bad points.  In this market, I'm not really sure which is better.

 

OK - I'll bite.  What do you mean by overtime?

why do you say that?  most people including fund managers do not beat the index over time.

Well I bought some spy today.  Maybe I'll buy some more tomorrow.

I guess I'm not following.  If you say to short GOP, I would go long healthcare stocks.  The GOP is going to lose on this.

We have tiered rates here - based on consumption, they allot your household a certain amount for each kilowatt based on hour if day and season.  It fluctuates so hard to know how much it really costs. 

We opted for solar when rates went up more than 100% over course of one year.  My monthly cost was $85-100, then it was doubled.  

 

 

What was their price per month? 

We figured it would be a ten year payback, based on our electricity prices skyrocketing.  They system is warrantied for 25 years. The cost was $30,000 after factoring in a one time rebate from electricity company and a $2000 fed tax rebate.  

Our price per year for electricity has ranged from $250-$800 because of net metering. Every new smart appliance we got has reduced our consumption costs more and more each year.  We re on track to settle our bill for about $240 next month for whole year,  the all time low. 

a friend just got a leased system that will lock in her rates for $150 per month to solar company, plus prob another $35-50 to electricity company. This price lock is for 20 years. After 20 years, she is looking at least a $45,000 cost with possible prices to still rise on the electric company side. 

i figure after 20 years, we are in for $10,000 less than her, with a warranty that runs another five years.  

I can watch my meter run backwards. 

If you don't have cash upfront, than the solar leasing can make sense.  We looked at the big picture - getting the system, knowing that we could sell our house and it be a big selling point.  If we leased, it limits options for new buyer.  

 

 

 

 

 

Purchased system in 2007, net meter with So Cal Edison. 

So, did you do this thru a aggregator as SCTY or DIY direct to utility? Are you leasing or own units? 

I don't own any solar stocks, perhaps I should

IMO, Solar  is going to get big. China is acknowledging that they have a pollution problem in so many areas. 

disclaimer: I own solar stocks. 

No recommendations.

But,,,, I hold SCTY (bigboy,ElonMusk is chairman, HomeDepot info tables, I had them come out to do survey, neighbors have installed SolarCity), SUNE (used to be MEMC the wafer compy making substrate), and RSOL (East coast installer). SUNE and RSOL have limited downside ($0) but could potentially have big upside. Our local electric power companies (Public Utility Districts, PGE and PPL (MidAmerican/Bershire-Hathaway) are mandated by Oregon Public Utility Commission and by Law to achieve a certain level of renewal energy sourcing by a certain year. Hydropower has been 100% exploited, coal is bad news for states downwind (we are upwind), wind-power problem are limited transmission facilities. I would guess that in the eastern parts of our state, further wind-power sites will necessitate new or upgrade transmission lines, a solar farm will be co-sited.

disclaimers: My holdings are small. Lots of controversy on solar. Lots of Deniers. A taxpayer subsidized industry. I trade for what I think is a opportunity. 

So, I showed you mine. What do you have. ?

-- Edited by longprime on Friday 27th of September 2013 08:15:14 PM

-- Edited by longprime on Friday 27th of September 2013 08:18:51 PM

One of my sons opted to use a low interest loan to invest, because it was poised to be the next big thing.  We had no idea he did this until after the fact. 

Too bad he will be paying that one back for years to come.

We have played risky, played conservative and while some people win big, we haven't ever been the ones that timed it right.  

I believe you should gamble with money unless you can afford to lose it. Others may disagree. 

 

 

 

 

i am pretty terrified of losing everything or substantial losses in another collapse. 

and so is everyone else. There is a lot of cash sitting in low yielding CDs and Treasuries.

M2: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2/

What is amazing is that with all stimuli and QE's. we still have a flat economy, essentially zero inflation, poor employment. So what's happening? So look at the Velocity of the liquid cash- http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV?cid=32242

It seems that no one is spending any money, anywhere, on anything. The top 10% who have 80% of the nation's wealth isn't spending. There is no trickle down. The remaining 90% who have the 20% of the wealth just do not have the purchasing power, knowledge, needs & wants, and are plain "terrified of losing everything or substantial losses in another collapse." 

I am with you there. However, know that if we continue avoiding risks, we will never get out of the abyss.  If we take more chances, there is a chance of getting out. The paradox is that the poor can't risk what ever they have and the wealthy don't need to risk more. Those in the middle are conflicted in today's politics and terrified in losing whatever riches they may have. 

That's true. It would be a stressful life, being a day trader.

I really suck at picking stocks. Just suck. I buy a stock, it instantly goes down....and stays there. I sell it, it skyrockets. I need to never do it, but I can't resist. I hope your husband is better than me, samurai! I keep being tempted to buy Apple, though, in spite of myself.

Our friend who handles our Roth, is awesome. 17.9% rate of return for over 16 years. Wish we'd given him more money a long, long time ago! At least we converted it in 2010, and he's more than doubled it since.

Our other stuff is all in 401K mutual funds. As long as I don't mess around with them too much, they seem to do okay.

What stocks have you been investing in?

I increased my cash position yesterday just a bit....to 20%, from 17%. Since it's long term, I'm trying not to overreact too much, and just call it "rebalancing". That is just of our 401K account, not including real estate or Roth accounts. But I did put my son (fairly small account) to 100% in cash.

I don't know. Nobody wants a government shutdown, do they? Certainly not to be responsible for one. I figure they'll run it up to the last minute, then come to a conclusion. Just in case, with all the worry going on over the next week, I think I'm going to wait to reinvest my cash. Just doesn't look so good to me.

The remaining stuff HOT, PRI, BGS,SNAK,NWN are pretty stable and there is a lot of profit in them so I can afford to have some down movements. NWN was bought at lows so there is not profit yet but it is a high dividend payer (4.3%) which prevents any further erosion.

I suspect that the House R's will force a Government closure. I will reduce spending as will millions of households because of this. R's of all type and stripes will be vilified. Millions of people will be eligible for medical insurance that is more transparent at reasonable costs and with more choices-ME. I expect the GNP will decline because of Government closure. PBO will again come out of this with even more of a convincing argument and R's will look stupid, again. 

 

Out on Tues, Wed, for  Z, TRLA, SCTY, C, MSFT. Cash at near 50%