Political & Elections

hope · Guru

RE: Polls and the media

jazzy · Senior Member

“Romney is behind and has been there for quite some time. According to the Real Clear Politics average of head-to-head polls, Romney hasn’t led the race since October 2011. The closest he came to a lead in the polls this year was during the Republican National Convention, when he managed to … tie Obama. Romney is also behind in most election-forecasting models. Political scientist James Campbell rounded up 13 of the most credible efforts to predict the election outcome: Romney trails in eight of them. He’s also behind in Nate Silver’s election model, the Princeton Election Consortium’s meta-analysis, Drew Linzer’s Votamatic model and theWonkblog election model. But I didn’t realize quite how dire Romney’s situation was until I began reading “The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do and Don’t Matter,” a new book from political scientists Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien.” Ezra Klein in The Washington Post.

longprime · Guru

Vanity Fair, Oct 2012. with Katie Holmes, as the covergirl. Very good issue. Something for everyone: Michael Lewis on Obama; Diamonds (deBeers); influential $$$ people from the Valley. James Bond. Liberace. and KatieHolmes/Scientology. Politics, PrettyGirls. PrettyGuys, and Fashion. evileye

-- Edited by longprime on Tuesday 18th of September 2012 02:21:52 PM

pima · Guru

Jazzy,

Winchester said it! I made an honest attempt to hear you out, and you slammed the door shut!

You are busy, I get it, than say I am busy at work now, and when I have a moment to discuss this I will post. That is not what you said. You said GOOGLE it yourself.

I understand you are busy, I will wait patiently until you come back and respond to my questions. Not being antagonistic.

Look, GM was a drag on our economy, I get it, but what about now?

I can do that with the other topics, illustrating Obama's position, and the flip side for Romney.

My position is tell me your position, not the talking points from MSNBC, TPM, DB, Mother Jones.

You and your opinion alone, not spewing links because that is what you have heard from people like Chris Matthews or Bill Maher.

Why and how your life is better now in 2012 than it was in 2008? You.

Why you think he kept his campaign promises from 2008? You

Why you think in the midst of the mid-east upheaval he is a better option than Romney? You.

Don't give me links to prove this is how our country or the world feels. Give me your opinion. That's all I asked. Your opinion. Notice I asked you to grade him, not the media or the country. Your grade and why. The way you change the country is 1 vote at a time.

-- Edited by pima on Tuesday 18th of September 2012 01:52:34 PM

-- Edited by pima on Tuesday 18th of September 2012 01:53:58 PM

winchester · Guru

war-mongering pressure from the Bush-Cheney neocons that now have Romney wrapped around their little fingers

There’s that BDS again. (Bush Derangement Syndrome.)

As I’ve said, “since roughly half of fundamental human nature is external to liberal morality many liberals have literally no other option in their attempts to understand conservative views but to attribute them to some sort of mental, emotional, or social dysfunction or phobia. Thus the timeless liberal meme of uncaring conservative "meanness," and conclusions such as Tea Party members are racist.”

This goes for the “war mongering” delusion as well.

I believe enough Americans have seen enough instances of strong and successful leadership from Obama

Name one.

I'm not going to waste my time trying to convince you

Then why are you here?

Pima is making an honest attempt to hear you out and give your position serious consideration with an open mind.

Isn't "reason" and open mindedness something liberals value and pride themselves on? Isn't Pima openly inviting you to do just that and promising to listen?

If you can't be bothered then you're just baiting, or trolling, and Pima, or anyone, has no reason to waste their time engaging with you.

-- Edited by winchester on Tuesday 18th of September 2012 01:15:07 PM

pima · Guru

Jazzy,

Please illustrate Obama's strong and successful leadership IYPO. Not links to blogs, or websites, but what you see as a voter that illustrate his strength.

I am willing to listen, I am willing to accept if a case is built. I am not willing to listen to left wing media harping on Romney since the 1st week he announced his candidacy. Notice the "I am not..."? That is me saying to you don't give me TPM, or Mother Jones.
It is me repeating your words.

Convince me.

Start knocking off point by point his successes.

Unemployment
Gitmo closure
Iraq
Afghanistan
GM
Housing/mtgs

What grade do you give him on those issues?

Yep, I know, Bin Laden was killed, and he created a health plan that is not yet operational. Next!

OBTW, as a wife of a retired AF officer, a mother of a newly minted 2nd LT. I am not a war mongerer. I am looking for a President that understands how international issues can impact our military. Cheney as SOD understood that problem. I like Panetta. I think he gets it too, but his problem is the administration tieing his hands. Difference is the President. Obama wanted to hold trials in NYC for Gitmo prisoners. He didn't get it until he was hit over the head that this idea might not be a good idea.

-- Edited by pima on Tuesday 18th of September 2012 12:21:15 PM

-- Edited by pima on Tuesday 18th of September 2012 12:26:11 PM

geeps20 · Senior Member

Whoever wins Florida, wins the Presidency...It will be a very close election, yet my vote will be meaningless...time to get rid of the EC

winchester · Guru

the further out on the circles you move, the more Democratic the poll usually gets. ... the population we care most about – the actual voters – cannot be polled

http://www.weeklystandard.com/print/blogs/morning-jay-how-read-polls_650668.html

longprime · Guru

Well, I also look at the R polls (pollster-huffington)

However, MR and R's are now revamping (sept 17, Monday) their message. They must know something is wrong and that something is forcing a change.

longprime · Guru

I agree- Its not over yet. A

geeps20 · Senior Member

please explain how it effects the little guy...shouldn't every person's vote count the same, no matter they live?

As it is now, many many people do not vote because their state is already decided.

The people of about 6 states need only come out to vote this year...

-- Edited by geeps20 on Monday 17th of September 2012 04:58:32 PM

pima · Guru

It is funny, this a.m. the news was it is over for Romney. They are in fear and trying to throw a hail Mary.

I go on Drudge and see this regarding polls from rasmussen

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Mitt is at 47 and Obama is at 45, when leaners are included it is 48 each.

Honestly, either the media is tilting or the polls are wrong! It can't be both.

winchester · Guru

time to get rid of the EC

This is a popular but utterly stupid idea.

I'm not saying you are stupid geeps, just the thought of getting rid of the electoral college.

It really is seriously stupid.

If we get rid of the elctoral college then the people in the tall blue columns in the image below will elect our presidents. Is that what we want? I didn't think so.

As it is, those people have a huge, sometimes overwhelming,say in whether the entire state goes red or blue.

Yes, I keep using this image. That's because it is so telling.

If we get rid of the electoral college there'll be no practical reason to campaign in any place other than Los Angeles, New York City, Chicago, and the rest of the massively liberal cities.

The electoral college protects the little guy. It protects the people who would otherwise have no voice at all. It prevents the tyranny of the majority. How/why can people not see that?

We CANNOT get rid of the electoroal college. I can't stress this strongly enough.

-- Edited by winchester on Monday 17th of September 2012 04:20:36 PM

winchester · Guru

They use the prior election as their base model (7 percentage points more Democrats than Republicans) for consistency sake but not for accuracy sake. Only Rasmussen Reports aggressively surveys the public to get a sense of current party affiliation and weights his polls accordingly. This is why, despite hysterical protests from the Left, Rasmussen consistently calls the Presidential races better than his competitors. One of the commenters, greymarch, mentioned some good work by @NumbersMuncher showed the +3.1% lead for Obama in the current (September 15) Real Clear Politics average of national polls was based on polls where Democrats were being oversampled by on average +6.1%. Now we have this disparity in graphic detail:

As you can see the X-Axis is the % over-sampling either way: movement to the left is Republican over-sampling while movement to the right is Democrat over-sampling. The Y-Axis is the attendant Obama lead which loosely correlates to how greatly Democrats are over-sampled. The real take-away which I have mentioned the times I blog national polls is that many of those national polls are HORRIBLE for Obama, namely the ABC/Washington Post and CBS/New York Times polls where you have large Democrat over-samplings but rather small leads for Obama. This means if Obama doesn’t meet or beat his stellar 2008 turnout advantage he’s in for a drubbing on election day.

These over-samplings serve a few purposes but mainly drive down enthusiasm for Republicans while assisting the Obama campaign with “bandwagon” supporters who simply like being on the winning team (they’re real and they count). If pollsters in conjunction with the Obama campaign create a negative feedback loop for Republicans such that the marginal voter doesn’t show up (definitely a well documented top priority for the Obama campaign) and assist with the bandwagon voter — a small but meaningful voter in close elections — then Obama can create the perfect storm he needs to eek out a close victory following one of the worst four-year performances for any President in modern times (Carter is the only arguable comparable).

That is the what and why pollsters are doing the massive Democrat over-sampling this election cycle.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: As mentioned in the comments section, Rasmussen Premium subscribers know that Rasmussen Reports polls are weighted D +1, not not D -2 (or R+2 however you like it) like the original chart posted. @NumbersMucher has a chart reflecting this corrected information and the chart above reflects the corrected data.

what happens when you re-weight polls to reflect the last election when all the current data tells you voter preference has sharply changed? You get stories like this one in 2010:

NEWSWEEK Poll: Democrats May Not Be Headed for Midterm Bloodbath

Obama’s approval continues to slide, but Bush’s legacy still haunts the GOP.

As Democrats prepare for considerable losses in the November elections, there’s reason to believe the party in power may not be headed for the bloodbath it might expect. According to a new NEWSWEEK Poll, President Obama’s approval rating—47 percent—indicates that the party is better off this year than Republicans were in 2006, when the GOP lost 30 House seats, and than the Democrats were in 1994, when they lost 52 House seats. Obama’s approval has fallen 1 percentage point since the last NEWSWEEK survey in June, but the White House has gained ground on several specific issues, specifically his handling of the economy, which has risen to 40 percent (from 38 percent) over the past two months.

Newsweek found a 45-45 tie for Congressional preference ahead of the 2010 mid-terms. But when you look at the party vote breakdown, Democrats are winning 90% of the Democratic vote and Republicans are winning 94% of the Republican vote BUT Independents favor Republicans by 12 points: 45 to 33 – sound familiar? It’s impossible to have a tied race when both sides lock up their bases and one side is winning Independents decisively. So Newsweek re-weighted this poll to reflect the 2008 party identification for Democrats with a 7-point advantage to create a tied race ahead of what became a historic bloodbath at the Federal and State level the likes of which Republicans had never seen before.

This is exactly what is happening today.
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/14/making-the-case-against-polls-over-sampling-democrats-todays-must-read/

-- Edited by winchester on Monday 17th of September 2012 10:32:13 AM