The only reason these wacky Republican bills to restrict a woman's right to choices regarding reproductive health are having problems is because women are rising up in protest. We shouldn't have to keep doing that in order to stop these ridiculous bills. States have been successful in throwing up more hurdles with regard to abortion. There are waiting periods, required counseling, required ultrasounds, parental permission, requirements that they be done in a hospital, etc. There are many areas in this country in which an abortion is so difficult and expensive to arrange, they may as well be outlawed. This is not fear mongering; it is reality.
"One of the things I will talk about, that no president has talked about before, is I think the dangers of contraception in this country.... Many of the Christian faith have said, well, that's okay, contraception is okay. It's not okay. It's a license to do things in a sexual realm that is counter to how things are supposed to be." (Santorum, speaking with CaffeinatedThoughts.com, Oct. 18, 2011)
Just Democratic fearmongering by one of those random presidential candidates.
I don't spend a lot of time reading about this nonsense, but even Mississippi did not pass a Personhood law, I believe. It didn't make it in Virginia. Lots of things are "put forward" and nothing happens. Twelve states--not a whole lot.
Meanwhile, access to contraception, abortion, abortafacients, sterliization, etc. etc. go on as before, but to read the news lately one would think women are already being forced to quit their jobs, become pregnant, and go barefoot.
Imo, at least the "fear-mongering" Rs are accused of relative to Obamacare has some basis in reality.
hope, I agree that Obama's actions have increased the visibility of the issue. But I don't think you can say this is an issue being ginned up by Democrats by a long shot.
There are currently 12 states where Republicans have put forward personhood laws, which declare a fertilized egg a full-fledged person with all the rights of any other person.
200 members of Congress have signed personhood pledges, promising to vote for it. Romney, Gingrich and Santorum have each signed the personhood pledge.
Virginia came close to enacting a law forcing women to have a highly invasive procedure as a prerequisite to having an abortion. The really it didn't become law is that the governor suddenly changed his mind and said he wouldn't sign it.
I think if Santorum is the nom., there will be many RINO's looking at Obama and saying I can live 4 more yrs with him.
Honestly, the way I think many will look at it is not 4 yrs., but 8, because let's be honest in 2016 if an R wins 2012 they will be unchallenged in 16.
I cannot accept Santorum for 8 yrs. I would rather let Obama stay and in 16 have a strong candidate, like Rubio, Christie, Jeb or McDonnell.
That is where the R party is really fractured. The true candidates that they want to be President or not running. Again it is like Dole in 96. He won the nom by default. McCain did not win by default in 08. I think Romney felt like he was McCain 2.0. McCain gave Bush a run for his money in 00, and Romney in 08 gave McCain a run too.
__________________
Raising a teenager is like nailing Jello to a tree
I hope not, pima. I kind of want Santorum on the ballot just because many Reps would stay home. The Republican party, with their shift to the religious right, is just scary IMO. I feel like many moderate Republicans are being forced out by the extreme right.
I don't mind Romney being the president. He seems slimey IMO and I think he'd be a typical politician and wouldn't do much either way. He doesn't bother me. The only thing that bothers me about him being on the ballot is that many people vote straight ticket and, like I said, some new Republicans who are being elected are those on the extreme right rather than in the middle. When you have some majority Republican state legislators passing laws like forcing women to get a transvaginal ultrasound in order to get a legal procedure like abortion done, it makes me question where the party as a whole stands. It also seems like the Republican party is focusing far more on social issues than economic issues so I really wonder what good, if any, they'll do for the economy.
I want Santorum on the ticket, and lose in a landslide. I want moderate Republicans to show their party that they can't stand this pandering to the religious far right. I want the R party to shift more back to the center. I know that I'm young and naive, but I never thought I'd imagine access to birth control being a political issue in my lifetime (I'm not talking about the free birth control, I'm talking about the debate about whether or not birth control is harmful and such). Abortions? Yes. Birth control? No.
Or- politicians could just be being politicians and they'll be far more moderate when they actually get in to office. I hope.
Birth control would not have been an " issue in our lifetime," were it not for the fact that Obama has made it a phony issue. Consequently, what it is, since Obama's unnecessary sticking of his nose where it doesn't belong, is a religious rights issue.
There is no lack of access to birth control in this country, nor sterilization, nor abortafacients, nor abortion, nor any other "female reproductive right" in America, and there never will be. Period. End of story.
I'd be very careful about falling for the left's fear mongering. There are stupid people in both parties.
-- Edited by hope on Thursday 23rd of February 2012 01:14:50 PM
I'd be 30 by the time Santorum left office (if 8 years). My birthday is the last day that presidents are in office. That's scary when I think about it that way.
pima, I think your post is spot on. I'm just really surprised that no strong Rs ran because O's numbers were so low. I think a strong R could have easily won the nomination and been extremely competitive in the general election. But I guess nothing should surprise me about politicians anymore.
Or the world will end in December and this whole thing will be moot. Santorum's election and the end of the world... hm... Santorum is the anti-Christ! (I'm totally and completely kidding, don't flame me.)
-- Edited by romanigypsyeyes on Thursday 23rd of February 2012 09:16:32 AM
The country as a whole doesn't elect the President. Individual states do. There seem to be a lot more stupid states than smart ones these days. My home state of Virginia has been going infamously down the stupid hole the last few weeks.
My advisor and I were talking yesterday. I said that I wanted Ricky to be the Rep nominee because it would be a gift to the Dems and he said, "But what if he wins?" It was the first time I had ever, EVER even considered that he might ACTUALLY be president one day. I don't know if I want to risk him being the nominee anymore- because there's always a chance that he COULD win.
The problem with the R's right now is they are disjointed, and every faction believes they own the party. They have lost their direction, because they forgot what their true goal is...the WH.
Bush43 won because the true goal was the WH. If you recall he had issues too, and it was him against McCain. Theoretically, McCain would have been a better bet if you looked at the platform, but Bush was more electable. I am not sure if Bush was from WY he would have won the nom. Main reason why, people immediately knew he would carry TX, a big number. Most people also believed because of Jeb, he would carry FL. It was everyone play nice together to achieve our goal.
That is not the case anymore. Now it is "I want my issue as number 1", ironic, since voters are doing exactly what they complain about regarding DC.
The more this goes down the line, the more I am becoming Ind. with every second. The R party is turning me off to the point I think negative about the voters in the party. I believe in the fiscal platform of the R, but I am closer socially (gay marriage, gays in the military, abortion) with the Dems. I will never be a Dem because of fiscal issues, however, if the R's keep pandering to the Tea Party and Christian right, I will never be an R again.
roman,
I will change my prediction from Reagan election to Clinton/Dole. You are right he will be able to pull some states if he picks a strong VP, but the problem is, if the VP is politically savvy, like a Rubio, they will not accept the VP position. VP's are selected to shore up weaknesses of the nom., or to pick up electoral seats. I think most strong R candidates would say NO, because if they win it puts them off for 8 yrs., and it can ruin their chances to become number 1 on the ticket. Look at Gore, many say he lost to Bush because of Clinton. Look at McCain, many will say he loss because of Bush 43.
Bush 41 was not a shoe in until Dukakis had his 3 gaffes: 1. Willie Horton 2. Tank ad 3. Kitty' alcohol addiction
Had none of these issue come to light, Bush 41 probably would never have been Pres., and honestly who knows if 43 would have either. The Bush name in TX got him to the governor's mansion....follow the dots.
If you even look at 41 and picking Quayle, it was done to offset his weaknesses, but he was not the ideal VP. Maybe he was selected because he was the only one willing to risk his career.
__________________
Raising a teenager is like nailing Jello to a tree
Winchester, you get the award for bringing forth the works of unapologetically conservative writers and institutioins as the gospel and declaring any other opinions as myth. I'm not denying that there are agendas on the other side of the coin, but it is far from being black and white. Actually it was about black and white.
You are confusing ideology with campaign tactics, and you are confusing which party did the ideological flip-flop regarding the use of civil rights for campaign purposes.
The Republican Party has been consistent in its pro civil rights positions since its inception. This is a matter of record (Congressional Record, to be precise). Also a matter of record is that the Democratic party worked “tooth and nail” against it, right up until the Civil Rights Act of 1964, when LBJ co-opted it as a Democratic Party campaign tactic.
LBJ himself voted against it almost 80% of the time, until he became president, at which time he flip-flopped for purely political purposes. Here’s what he had to say about it:
“I’ll have those ******s voting Democratic for the next 200 years.” — President Lyndon B. Johnson to two governors on Air Force One -
“These Negroes, they’re getting pretty uppity these days and that’s a problem for us since they’ve got something now they never had before, the political pull to back up their uppityness. Now we’ve got to do something about this, ....”— President Lyndon B. Johnson From “Inside The White House” by Ronald Kessler
__________________
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” – Mark Twain
Here's what Michael Allen, co-author of The Patriot's History of the United States said when asked "What is the thruth behind the idea that the democratic and republican parties, at some point, switched sides ideologically?"
Not exactly. It is true the Federalists, Whigs, and GOP used to be the "big government" party and the Democrats the "less government" party in the 18th and 19th centuries. But today BOTh parties want MUCH more government than either of those early parties! Moreover, the GOp today wants more military and moral control, but they oppose centralized economic and bureaucragtic power. The Dems want more of the latter (economic and bureacucratic power) but oppose centralized military and moral (religious) force.
Yet, 220 years later the GOP still possess the pro-Capitalism and pro-military beliefs of Hamilton, Adams, Lincoln, and their Federalist and Whig forbears. And the Democrats are still suspicious of Capitalism and the Army, just like the "Party of the Common Man" founded by Thomas Jefferson.
__________________
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” – Mark Twain
You do a very nice job of parroting the liberal mythology about the “Southern Strategy.” The unfortunate thing about it is that it is just that: A Myth.
Here’s historian Mike Allen again, specifically addressing your claims:
Why did a new generation white Southerners join the GOP? Not because they thought Republicans were racists who would return the South to segregation, but because the GOP was a “local government, small government” party in the old Jeffersonian tradition. Southerners wanted less government and the GOP was their natural home.
Jimmy Carter, a Civil Rights Democrat, briefly returned some states to the Democrat fold, but in 1980, Goldwater’s heir, Ronald Reagan, sealed this deal for the GOP. The new ”Solid South” was solid GOP.
BUT, and we must stress this: the new southern Republicans were *integrationist* Republicans who accepted the Civil Rights revolution and full integration while retaining their love of Jeffersonian limited government principles.
Here’s Larry Schweikart, doing the same thing:
The idea that “the Dixiecrats joined the Republicans” is not quite true, as you note. But because of Strom Thurmond it is accepted as a fact. What happened is that the **next** generation (post 1965) of white southern politicians — Newt, Trent Lott, Ashcroft, Cochran, Alexander, etc — joined the GOP.
So it was really a passing of the torch as the old segregationists retired and were replaced by new young GOP guys. One particularly galling aspect to generalizations about “segregationists became GOP” is that the new GOP South was INTEGRATED for crying out loud, they accepted the Civil Rights revolution. Meanwhile, Jimmy Carter led a group of what would become “New” Democrats like Clinton and Al Gore. http://www.black-and-right.com/2010/03/19/the-dixiecrat-myth/
Here’s an article by the Claremont Institute, also debunking the myth. It, too, mentions Kevin Phillips, but unlike the New York Times opinions you quoted, it does not misrepresent what Phillips said:
In his well-known book, Kevin Phillips drew the lesson that a strong appeal in the Deep South, on the model of 1964, had already entailed and would entail defeat for the GOP everywhere else, including in what he termed the Outer South. He therefore rejected such an approach. He emphasized that Ike and Nixon did far better in the Peripheral South. He saw huge opportunities in the "youthful middle-class" of Texas, Florida, and other rapidly growing and changing Sun Belt states, where what he called "acutely Negrophobe politics" was weakest, not strongest. He thus endorsed "evolutionary success in the Outer South" as the basis of the GOP's "principal party strategy" for the region, concluding that this would bring the Deep South along in time, but emphatically on the national GOP's terms, not the segregationists'.
The tension between the myth and voting data escalates if we consider change across time. Starting in the 1950s, the South attracted millions of Midwesterners, Northeasterners, and other transplants. These "immigrants" identified themselves as Republicans at higher rates than native whites. In the 1980s, up to a quarter of self-declared Republicans in Texas appear to have been such immigrants. Furthermore, research consistently shows that identification with the GOP is stronger among the South's younger rather than older white voters, and that each cohort has also became more Republican with time. Do we really believe immigrants (like George H.W. Bush, who moved with his family to Texas) were more racist than native Southerners, and that younger Southerners identified more with white solidarity than did their elders, and that all cohorts did so more by the 1980s and '90s than they had earlier?
In sum, the GOP's Southern electorate was not rural, nativist, less educated, afraid of change, or concentrated in the most stagnant parts of the Deep South. It was disproportionately suburban, middle-class, educated, younger, non-native-Southern, and concentrated in the growth-points that were, so to speak, the least "Southern" parts of the South. This is a very strange way to reincarnate George Wallace's movement.
This understanding of history at best tells only part of the story, and at worst its accusation that Republicans are “boldly disingenuous” is a case of the pot calling the kettle black. The picture is nowhere near as clear as you make it out to be. In truth, it is much fuzzier, with each side providing the other with grounds, when looked at out of context of the overall trend as you do with your examples, to accuse the other of being disingenuous.
The pot calling the kettle black, huh? Who are the Democrats claiming that their party has always been the party of Civil Rights? Certainly,"Dixiecrats" were as comfortable as Hugh Heffner in a hot tub full of playboy bunnies until the appearance of a civil rights plank in the 1948 campaign. The outrage expressed by dissenters to this ideal gave rise to the very term "Dixiecrat." I'm sure you already know this nacent fracturing of the Democratic Party is essentially where the ideological shift began. Prior to this, Democrats had always been the party in full support of slavery, as well as the Jim Crow segregation that persisted for 100 years thereafter. The cozying up of men like Bobbie Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson to the likes of Martin Luther King, Jr. left a sizable chunk of the Southern electorate with no acceptable ideological home, that is until the Nixon campaign devised a plan to sweep The South, the heretofore citidel of Democratic politics.
Btw, concerning your claim that I "accuse Republicans of being boldly disingenuous," I must take exception: I said "whenever I hear someone point out that the Republican party is the "party of Lincoln," I roll my eyes. I went on to accuse such individuals of being boldly disingenuous, an accusation not extended to all, or even most Republicans, since as far as I've been able to see, it's not something most Republicans say. So, you see, I used no broad brush here.
Now, moving along to the point I was trying to make, I'm sure you're familiar with Keven Phillips, the estute political analyst endowed with a staggering knowlege of ethnic voting patterns and trends. He was hired by the 1968 Nixon campaign, and became one of its chief election strategists. According to Phillips, from a 1970 New York Times article on this political wunderkind:
When the average voter steps into the booth, he registers the prejudice or the allegiance bred by a mix of geography, history and ethnic reaction which stems from a past he knows only murkily. Three such mixes have determined the Presidential elections of the 19th and 20th centuries: the North-South cleavage that culminated in the Civil War; the slow assimilation into the Democratic party of the urban working class; and the Negro socioeconomic revolution, with its counter-reaction.
And:
The more Negroes who register as Democrats in the South, the sooner the Negrophobe whites will quit the Democrats and become Republicans. That's where the votes are. Without prodding from the blacks, the whites will backslide into their old comfortable arrangements with the local Democrats."
Sterilized and scientific as the terms by which Keven Phillips plots the emerging Republican majority, its common denominator is hostility to blacks and browns among slipping Democrats and abandonment of the Democratic party because of its identification with the colored minorities. In the Northeast, the slipage is among blue-collar Catholics who find their neighborhoods and clubhouses overrun by invading Negroes, while their erstwhile party seems to cluck approval. In the outer South, the national Democratic party has begun to replace the GOP as a symbol of alien causes--the Negro politicians and Federal interference with local autonomy. Hence the shift to Republicanism, a trend which for the same reasons has engulfed the milder border states and will, Phillips insists, capture the perferdid South when events force the abandonment of the more extreme Wallace alternative. In the "Latin Crescent"--lower Florida, Louisiana, Texas--the political emergence of the Cuban and Mexican American minorities, joined with Negroes and white radicals in a Democratic alliance, will drive the majority constituency of traditional white Democrats into the GOP.
And:
Revolt against the liberal intellectual elite of the North-East by the resentful commoners of the South, West, and Mid-West is at the heart of the Phillips diagnosis. Richard J. Barnet, Co-director of the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C., and co-author of "The Economy of Death," is representative of that elite. He is Ivy League, wears granny glasses, has been to Hanoi, assails the military industrial complex, runs a think-tank foundation and is surrounded by bearded men and an occassional braless woman. Barnet believes the coilition envisioned by Phillips is possible, but disputes its character: "Phillips may be right. If people don't take his theory seriously enough to come up with alternatives--and the Democrats haven't yet--the forces he mentions, together with the national security-military institution may well produce the nightmare he describes. But the analogy is not with Jefferson; it is with Hitler. The elements are all there--deep rooted social cleavage, insoluble problems, rhetoric which attempts to legitimize and encourage hate, and a phony genetic and geographical underpenning, a despised minority to blame for everything. It all adds up to scapegoat politics, which is a tactic of fascism. The new gains of the Republican party are based upon preservation of the status quo by stopping the Civil Right advance. But the status quo is racist. The Administration tries to legitimize this by saying it will carry out the orders of the courts against de jure segregation. But its an old tactic to use the courts as a way of avoiding execution or political action. The courts, even before the Nixon administration alters their composition, cannot go very far by themselves in bringing about equality between the races. The South, for instance, is just beginning to emerge from a society that was totally racist. Such small gains as have been made involved hugh expenditures of energy, moral authority and political risk. To say we are going to stop now, to pervert the moral authority of the Presidency in order to make people feel more comfortable with their prejudices--and that's what's happening today--is to say that we accept racism. And to build a political majority based on racism is taking a long step toward fascism."
Note that this article appeared in a 1970 New York Times edition.
Oh, and remember Lee A****er, Republican strategist, and political advisor to the likes of Strom Thurmond (racist Dixiecrat convert to the GOP). Lee was architect of the famous "Willie Horton" ads run against Mike Dukakis. During an 1981 interview, and in a spasm of stark truthfulness, he once had this to say about continuing strategies to keep resentful white voters loyal to the GOP:
A****er: You start out in 1954 by saying, "******, ******, ******." By 1968 you can't say "******" — that hurts you. Backfires. So you say stuff like forced busing, states' rights and all that stuff. You're getting so abstract now [that] you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is [that] blacks get hurt worse than whites. And subconsciously maybe that is part of it. I'm not saying that. But I'm saying that if it is getting that abstract, and that coded, that we are doing away with the racial problem one way or the other. You follow me — because obviously sitting around saying, "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "******, ******."
You bold the word “progressive,” as if that word is somehow meaningful, or helpful to your simplified view of things. It’s not. You may as well point to the original understanding of the word “liberal” (i.e., describing values that are now understood to be “conservative”) as proof that conservatives have switched ideologies.
I'll assume you did not understand my purpose for bolding the word progressive, so I'll attempt to be more clear. I used the term "progressive" as it addresses the overall spirit of political movements aimed at the breaking down of prevailing social mores. It does no good to point out that, historically, both the Republican and Democratic parties were once exponentially more socially conservative than they are today (though the GOP of late seems determined to take a hard jog to the right on many of today's social issues). The meaning of the terms "liberal" and "conservative" are relative to their times. Surely you know this.
The Republican Party was indeed founded on a platform of anti-slavery.
The Republican Party introduced multiple civil rights bills in the century before the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The Republican Party voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 by an 80%-20% margin, whereas Democrats voted in favor of it by a much smaller margin of %60-40%.
I don't think you assertain that I already know these things. Yes, the Republican party was the socially progressive party until it stopped being the socially progressive party. Today, for instance, probably few people calling themselves Republican would insist that theirs is the socially progressive party, what with the renewed and increasingly strenuous objection to things like women's reproductive rights (and even such heretofore settled issues, like access to birth control) and marriage rights for the LGBT community. Note that all the things you list above happened before Nixon's Southern strategy was so effectively implimented.
-- Edited by Poetsheart on Friday 17th of February 2012 01:09:01 AM
Bolding mine. This is why I roll my eyes whenever I hear someone point out that the Republican Party is "the party of Lincoln." You would think they'd be embarrassed to be so boldly disingenuous, given that anyone with two brain cells to rub together knows the Republican and Democratic parties essentially shifted ideological places decades ago. The Civil Rights movement, and Nixon's Southern Strategy worked in concert to bring that shift to full fruition, and not much has changed since.
This understanding of history at best tells only part of the story, and at worst its accusation that Republicans are “boldly disingenuous” is a case of the pot calling the kettle black. The picture is nowhere near as clear as you make it out to be. In truth, it is much fuzzier, with each side providing the other with grounds, when looked at out of context of the overall trend as you do with your examples, to accuse the other of being disingenuous.
You bold the word “progressive,” as if that word is somehow meaningful, or helpful to your simplified view of things. It’s not. You may as well point to the original understanding of the word “liberal” (i.e., describing values that are now understood to be “conservative”) as proof that conservatives have switched ideologies.
The issue is further confused by the fact that in previous decades there were conservative Democrats and liberal Republicans. This muddies the waters even more, but I think it is fairly safe to say that the Republican party was MORE conservative than liberal, and vice versa for the Democratic party. It has taken about 150 years for the conservative/liberal ideological divide to gravitate to the more or less Republican/Democrat split we see today.
But, when looking at the overall trend; the track record of the Republican Party, and of conservatism, is much more favorable than that of the Democratic Party, and liberalism, in terms of civil rights, the economy, and the power of government. I know this goes against the “mainstream” conventional wisdom – that I am blaspheming the common platitudes that “everybody knows” (sic) - but, the inconvenient truth is that your Zinnian/Beardian “People’s History” view of things is simply not what happened, no matter how much you roll your eyes about it.
The Republican Party was indeed founded on a platform of anti-slavery.
The Republican Party introduced multiple civil rights bills in the century before the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
The Republican Party voted in favor of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 by an 80%-20% margin, whereas Democrats voted in favor of it by a much smaller margin of %60-40%.
Probably the most even-handed and accurate description of American history available today is “The Patriot’s History of the United States,” by Larry Schweikart and Michael Allen. Here is what Schweikart said when asked about the truth behind the idea that the democratic and republican parties, at some point, switched sides ideologically (bolding mine):
Regarding economics, and the power of government, Republicans and Democrats have always been relatively consistent from the beginning up to today:
It's a very, very detailed question and while I hate to say it, you really need to read through "Patriot's History" to get the proper evolution. Whigs and Republicans at one point did favor some big-government spending for RRs, and favored high tariffs; but they also were always the party of the gold standard, not inflation, which the Dems have been since the Civil War. The Jacksonian Dems were for gold, but they also expanded the power of the central government. So you can't deal with this on a simplistic level.
Regarding civil rights:
In the 1850-60s, very few of either party thought in terms of full social equality for blacks. Republicans wanted blacks to have political rights for blacks but didn’t want them up north. Much of what Republicans wanted was to saddle the South with the issues of civil rights without themselves ever having to deal with them.
That said, it is absolutely true that in practice the Republicans worked to advance black rights in all areas, the Dems worked feverishly to deny them by law at every turn.
By the end of the Civil War, slavery had been outlawed in most of the North.
__________________
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” – Mark Twain
Until campaign finance is changed significantly, nothing will change. Campaign finance is going in the wrong direction. It will take a consitutional amendment at this point.
For example, the political chaos in the United States immediately preceding the Civil War allowed the Republican Party to replace the Whig Party as the progressive half of the American political landscape.
Bolding mine. This is why I roll my eyes whenever I hear someone point out that the Republican Party is "the party of Lincoln." You would think they'd be embarrassed to be so boldly disingenuous, given that anyone with two brain cells to rub together knows the Republican and Democratic parties essentially shifted ideological places decades ago. The Civil Rights movement, and Nixon's Southern Strategy worked in concert to bring that shift to full fruition, and not much has changed since.
Oh, and I agree that a true third party is unworkable within our current political system, which is two bad, because that means we're basically stuck with our increasingly more polarized two party system. I predict that less and less will actually be acomplished toward the national good for the forseeable future because of this. And I agree with Longprime: it's enough to induce both stomach ache and headache.
SC has already ruled against Hilary, that PACs and super PACs are legal and protected under the Constitution. Remember Ben Franklin, wealthiest guy in the British America, and Geo Washington, Thomas Jefferson, amongst the largest land owners in same.
So why worry when the election of the President is essentially paid by someone else. At least the campaign dollars didn't come from you. And the wealthy are only looking after your best interest; Just like taxation.
Go Ron. Who so far is funding his campaign by students via their parents.
-- Edited by longprime on Wednesday 15th of February 2012 11:23:19 PM
I agree completely, cartera. And that won't happen until politicians decide they are no longer willing to be owned by corporations, billionairs, and and their superpacs. Good thing I'm not holding my breath on that one....
-- Edited by Poetsheart on Wednesday 15th of February 2012 11:07:10 PM
I've asked this before, but is there a possibility that the R party (and part of the moderate D party) is going to split? It just feels like there's too many Rs like you, Pima, who can't go the direction of the R party but sure as heck don't want to vote Democratic (they will, but don't want to). I think the country is craving a moderate party but the two parties have too much of a stranglehold on politics to let this happen. I just keep feeling like something HAS to give.
Right now I think the R's are like the D's back in 03. Soros and the left held the party hostage. I think the far right is holding the R's hostage.
I think it is sad, very sad, that people have such single minded vision to the point where it distorts their view.
The drive behind Santorum is not about getting Obama out, it is about getting their candidate in, it is personal to them. They are so short sighted that they do not understand the system at all. The Hill holds the power. Sure, I would love a President that I agree with, but I get the fact that they have far less impact on my life than the Hill.
The R's are bowing to the Tea Party. The Tea Party is self absorbed in their desires and are unwilling to play ball.
If Santorum gets the nod, I probably will vote Obama. Something I never imagined I would say, but with everyday I am losing faith. Not in the party, but the people in the party. They are appearing to me to be too rigid. Funny because Obama in his party seems to be too flexible...i.e. Catholic BC, Gitmo, etc.
Taking bets right now... Santorum wins the nom, Obama wins in a landslide like Reagan against Mondale. Reagan carried 49 states!
__________________
Raising a teenager is like nailing Jello to a tree
If one party is dominating then neither of the other two, by itself, will have enough power (i.e., votes) to unseat the dominant one. The two weaker ones will bury the hatchet between themselves and merge to defeat the dominant one.
It's called Duverger's law. It is dependent upon how proportional voting works within the country. Given the electoral system in the U.S., third parties have practically no chance.
Here's the explanation from Wikipedia. It contains references to source materials and jibes with my recollection:
A two-party system often develops from the single-member district plurality voting system (SMDP). In an SMDP system, voters have a single vote which they can cast for a single candidate in their district, in which only one legislative seat is available. If the winner of the seat is determined purely by the candidate with the most votes, known as first past the post, then the SMDP system has several characteristics that can serve to discourage the development of third parties and reward the two major parties.
Duverger suggests two reasons why single-member district plurality voting systems favor a two party system. One is the result of the "fusion" (or an alliance very like fusion) of the weak parties, and the other is the "elimination" of weak parties by the voters, by which he means that the voters gradually desert the weak parties on the grounds that they have no chance of winning.[2][3]
A prominent restrictive feature unique to the SMDP voting system is purely statistical. Because the SMDP system only gives the winner in each district a seat, a party which consistently comes third in every district will not gain any seats in the legislature, even if it receives a significant proportion of the vote. This puts geographically thinly spread parties at a significant disadvantage. An example of this is the Liberal Democrats in the UK, whose proportion of seats in the legislature is significantly less than their proportion of the national vote. The Green Party of Canada is also a good example. The party received approximately 5% of the popular vote from 2004-2011, but had only won a single seat in the House of Commons in the same span of time. Another example was Ross Perot's candidacy in the 1992 U.S. presidential election, who got zero electoral votes despite getting 19% of the popular vote. Gerrymandering is sometimes used to counteract such geographic difficulties in local politics, but controversial on a large scale. These numerical disadvantages can create an artificial limit on the level at which a third party can engage in the political process.
The second unique problem is both statistical and tactical. Duverger suggested an election in which 100,000 moderate voters and 80,000 radical voters are voting for a single official. If two moderate parties ran candidates and one radical candidate were to run, the radical candidate would win unless one of the moderate candidates gathered fewer than 20,000 votes. Observing this, moderate voters would be more likely to vote for the candidate most likely to gain more votes, with the goal of defeating the radical candidate. Either the two parties must merge, or one moderate party must fail, as the voters gravitate to the two strong parties, a trend Duverger called polarization.[4]
A third party can only enter the arena if it can exploit the mistakes of a pre-existing major party, ultimately at that party's expense. For example, the political chaos in the United States immediately preceding the Civil War allowed the Republican Party to replace the Whig Party as the progressive half of the American political landscape. Loosely united on a platform of country-wide economic reform and federally funded industrialization, the decentralized Whig leadership failed to take a decisive stance on the slavery issue, effectively splitting the party along the Mason-Dixon Line. Southern rural planters, initially lured by the prospect of federal infrastructure and schools, quickly aligned themselves with the pro-slavery Democrats, while urban laborers and professionals in the northern states, threatened by the sudden shift in political and economic power and losing faith in the failing Whig candidates, flocked to the increasingly vocal anti-slavery Republican Party.
-- Edited by winchester on Wednesday 15th of February 2012 12:18:21 PM
-- Edited by winchester on Wednesday 15th of February 2012 12:18:52 PM
__________________
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” – Mark Twain
For all practical purposes a three party system is virtually impossible in this country.
As soon as one of the three parties begins to dominate the other two, the other two will “gang up” to defeat the dominant one.
If I remember correctly, this is covered by Hedrick Smith in his book "The Power Game: How Washington Works," which I read maybe 20 years ago. (I know I read it in one or another book about politicis in America, I think that is the book, but I could be wrong about that.)
-- Edited by winchester on Wednesday 15th of February 2012 10:48:15 AM
__________________
It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.” – Mark Twain
I'd like to see the R party reform into more defined groups. Where now they are diluting their movement.
I think that the religious fractions/abortion group has hijacked the R party. (Pat Buchanan wrote an excellent book, 2006)
There are alot things that I like and things that don't like in both parties. I particularly find it hard to believe that MOC's are so attached to their Party, that they cannot seek a middle path. It is my firm believe that laws and regulations come about because people and businesses crossed the invisible line to get an unfair advantage over their competitors resulting in people and businesses demanding laws and regulations.
For instance: Blah,blah, blah, and blah. Blah blah less to correct our mess. Which is one reason why we should promote washlet bidets (we won't track TP out of the toilet. And we will feel fresher.)
-- Edited by longprime on Wednesday 15th of February 2012 10:32:36 AM
Sorry...I keep saying "mandated" when I mean "mandated coverage."
Being serious for a moment...
I think you make excellent points about the R view there and I can't reconcile it myself. The R party seems a bit nutso to me lately, to tell you the truth.
Honestly, I never doubted Planned Parenthood's value until the brohaha (sp?) over SGKomen. I mean, really? PP was vicious in my view--and apparently they won't be happy until Brinker herself is desroyed. All that for $600,000 bucks? PP's budget is a billion? There are places in rural America that need PP, but I believe it's a fact that PP is located disproportionally in poor, minority neighborhoods. I think I read that the abortion rate among African American women is huge, compared to its population. That made me wonder--why the ferocity? Something, in my opinion, is rotten here.
You can say all you want that it's the press that promotes the story that Obama is personally liked by the majority of people, but I really think you're waaayyy in the minority in seeing Obama as nasty and snarky. The polls from left- and right- leaning pollsters all report the same findings, and the press has nothing to do with it.
You say you think the nominee will be Romney and that he'll beat Obama. Fair enough.
But the fact remains (not that facts seem to have much cache around here) that many senior placed Repbulicans, when talking amongs themselves without reporters or Democrats, are saying they don't think Obama can be beaten in 2012.
I think Obama will win, but not because he'll be facing a weak Republican candidate. I think he has weak Republicans going against him because the Republicans with real heft all concluded Obama was going to win.
Prediction: Romney will be the nominee and he will beat O in November.
Why? The debates and campaign between Barry and Mitt will bring out O's nasty, snarky side (i.e. the real O--the one without the teleprompter). Mitt will have prepped for this eventuality.
Imo, O's "likeability ratings" are way inflated (people worry about being seen as racist)--without the MSM spinning him constantly, they'd be even worse.
Yes, Mitt can get testy, but side to side with O, he'll come off as a reasonable, nice guy. (Think GWB and Gore, GWB and Kerry.)
Thought this might interest some of you. Overwhelmingly, they thought Santorum couldn't beat Obama (they think Romney can). But here's what I thought was interesting: a higher percentage of Republicans would be Enthusiastic or Pleased if Santorum won the nomination than Romney. That really surprised me since only 1/5 IIRC of Republicans think Santorum can beat Obama. There were quite a few other tidbits that I thought were interesting from those numbers.
I really don't understand where Santorum's support is coming from. I can't see how he appeals to any moderate Republicans. Maybe the Republican party has less moderates then I thought? I don't know.
With Obamacare BC, morning-after and sterilization mandated coverage, in order most especially to help out "poor and minority" women, soon enough we wascially wepublicans won't have to go to the trouble of voter suppression.
Yeah, but that would render the GOP unable to continue banging its holier-than-thou, spiraling black births out-of-wedlock/high abortion rate drum (it works like a marching band's bass drum you see, having two equal but opposite heads---good for banging one side, and then the other with equal verve: on the one hand, condemn them for having the baby---and then presumably relying on government assistance to feed and house them, and on the other, condemn them for aborting the baby---win, win. Plus it keeps the white supremicists satisfied that they're supporting the right party).
However, I'm curious, hope, where did the "mandated sterilization" idea come from? Where in the Affordable Health Care Act does it mandate that anyone be subject to sterilization? If you can prove that's in there , you just might have the issue that could bring Obama down in flames. One would think the GOP would jump all over that one. Better get busy and fire a missive to the Koch brothers, or whoever's in charge of their pro-Romney superpac. Just imagine the ads....
-- Edited by Poetsheart on Tuesday 14th of February 2012 09:54:43 PM
-- Edited by Poetsheart on Tuesday 14th of February 2012 09:56:04 PM
With Obamacare BC, morning-after and sterilization mandated coverage, in order most especially to help out "poor and minority" women, soon enough we wascially wepublicans won't have to go to the trouble of voter suppression.
Margaret Sanger, RIP.
;)
Clarification--sarcasm.
-- Edited by hope on Tuesday 14th of February 2012 09:25:16 PM
Do I think Republicans will vote for Obama? Absolutely not. But a lot of moderate Reps will stay home.
Agreed. As you've noted, Santorum is simply a non-starter where electibility is concerned in the general election. Just his stand on birth control alone is enough to make many independents and moderate Republicans to sit on their hands on election day. Heck, that could render virtually ineffective all GOP laws aimed at minority voter suppression...
-- Edited by Poetsheart on Tuesday 14th of February 2012 09:09:26 PM
Well, since I have no idea who you are, hayden, I have no way of knowing whether you have the inside scoop or not. True, I don't -- but I thought we were all just having fun adding our 2 cents around here.
I have no clue why "senior" Rs sould say that Obama can't be beaten. Based on these numbers alone, it seems like a risky proposition.
I will not even hold my nose and vote for him if he is the nom.
No offense, but part of me would lose every ounce of respect for the R party because they allowed the far right and their issues to become more important than the party.
He goes as the R, and it will be Reagan V Carter or Mondale all over again.
Obama will win in a landslide, and every D will ride on O's coat tails...welcome back Nancy.
__________________
Raising a teenager is like nailing Jello to a tree
He's gaining ground- almost at a deadhead with Romney in the polls (with Republicans). The best thing that can happen to Obama is a nut like Rick getting the Rep nomination. Far, far too conservative to appeal to Independents or even, like hope said, a lot of moderate Reps. Do I think Republicans will vote for Obama? Absolutely not. But a lot of moderate Reps will stay home. It might even mobilize moderate and liberal independents to go out and vote for Obama because Santorum is just a little scary IMO. He's just said too many things that make me think he's legitimately sexist and possibly racist.
The R's had better look at their respective congressional seats.
I hopefully think that our electorate is smart enough to know that Government could be a very useful thing to have. I am amazed to see them want to downsize government when BC downsized government and farmed out some of functions in the name of competition. Then to have W ignore oversight and expect the farmed operations to do right thing.
Ask any of the investor of Bernie Madoff funds-Kevin Bacon and Kiera Siedwick, our 6 degrees.
-- Edited by longprime on Tuesday 14th of February 2012 09:32:43 AM
Most moderate R's won't vote for him. I won't. I talked to my son, the one who is willing to vote for Romney, who said he'd vote for O before he'f vote for Rick!
How are we supposed to put together a win with just ultra conservatives voting?