Political & Elections

BigG · Guru

RE: White House Believes Egypt is Stable

soccerguy315 · Guru

well... he dissolved the cabinet (I don't expect this to help anything). The guy is over 80 years old. Looks like this is the end of the line for him. Where it leaves Egypt, I do not know...

Americans should look long and hard at events like this, Tunisia, and Iran when our own government is requesting an internet kill switch.

pictures from Egypt: http://totallycoolpix.com/2011/01/the-egypt-protests/

BigG · Guru

Fox News is waffling on the degree of importance of the Muslim Brotherhood to the unrest in Egypt.

To paraphrase; "They have their fingerprints all over it".

Soon to come, the Islamic Republic of Egypt?

Should President O. be encourageing restoration of communications? Wouldn't it be more in our interest for Mubarak to stifle dissent?

Abyss · Senior Member

It's in our best interests to keep regimes that won't get nuclear weapons.

Egypt can get nuclear weapons, their economy is certainly big enough.

-- Edited by Abyss on Friday 28th of January 2011 06:22:19 PM

BigG · Guru

So we can expect the "Death to America" signs in 6 months or so?

I think the secular states of the West simply do not and will not appreciate the importance of religion to the general populace of the Middle East.

By some accounts, the Iranian Revolution started in 1962.
The Shah, with our complicity, bloodily suppressed that initial rebellion. Khomeini's exile, for 15 years, ended with his return and the establishment of an Islamic Republic in which the political process was subordinate to religious authority.

The Shah fell and Khomeini returned less than a month later.

There was a period of comparative openness before Khomeini consolidated power.

But the Iranian Revolution was always a religious movment against corrupt secular authority.

Cardinal Fang · Senior Member

Al Jazeera live English-language coverage of situation here:

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

poetgrl · Senior Member

Yes, none of my Persian friends who live here now believe this will turn out well in the long run. But, the people I know who are Egyptian have said that the Mubarek regime was destined to run into this. What we don't understand here, from our vantage point, I think, is that the region is so different than ours and not just for the women, though that is undeniable. The Saudi's, as far as I understand, which admittedly I am NOT an expert in this area, are happy to have the hatred of the US, as it keeps the "masses" from noticing the ruling class is absconding with all the material wealth.

The whole region is unstable in a way we probably can't understand from over here.

Woodwork · Senior Member

Big G,

Be a little cautious of your tone.

My wife was part of the revolution. After the Ayatollah took over, her best friend was disappeared and her cousin was tourtured and raped for political crimes in Evin prision.

Khomeni returned from Paris in the wake of the revolution. It was very secular in the beginning...as were the aspirations of those involved. Knowing many people that were there at the time they all speak of the first 6 months as being unbelievably free and open. Khomeni had never even hinted that he would assume the wilayat al-faqih (look it up).

Khomeini adamantly opposed the provisional government of Shapour Bakhtiar, promising "I shall kick their teeth in. I appoint the government. I appoint the government by support of this nation."^[63]^[64] On 11 February [(Bahman 22)], Khomeini appointed his own competing interim prime minister, Mehdi Bazargan, demanding, "since I have appointed him, he must be obeyed." It was "God's government," he warned, disobedience against which was a "revolt against God."^[65]

[edit] Establishment of new government

As Khomeini's movement gained momentum, soldiers began to defect to his side and Khomeini declared jihad on soldiers who did not surrender.^[66] On 11 February, as revolt spread and armories were taken over, the military declared neutrality and the Bakhtiar regime collapsed.^[67] On 30 and 31 March 1979, a referendum to replace the monarchy with an Islamic Republic passed with 98% voting in favour of the replacement,^[68] but controversially the referendum was posed as a single question: "should the monarchy be abolished in favour of an Islamic Government?" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ruhollah_Khomeini

Below is an interview my daughter did with the former Shah's son in the Weekly Standard:
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/48531432/Pahlavis-Hope-for-a-Better-Iran-Engagement-with-the

I hope this clears things up. Be careful what you wish for.

BigG · Guru

I would bet the latter.

IMO trying to paint the circumstances in any other light is just "whistling past the graveyard".

"If there were a fundamentalist Islamist revolution it would be bad, very bad so it must not be happening."

Live in the real world.

-- Edited by BigG on Friday 28th of January 2011 01:01:19 PM

-- Edited by BigG on Friday 28th of January 2011 03:50:28 PM

Razorsharp · Guru

BigG wrote:

Have you NO intellectual honesty or philosophical shame?

Well, actually, I have no idea what is going on. Is this a good revolution like the one in East Germany or a bad one like the one in Iran where the religion of hate and intolerance took over.

BigG · Guru

Grand Ayatollah Sayyed Ruhollah Mostafawi Mousawi Khomeini of Iran was most assuredly not a "secular" figure.

You people are confusing what you wished were so with historical fact.

Revisionist, REVISONIST, REVISIONIST!!!

Have you NO intellectual honesty or philosophical shame?

The popular revolution going on in the Arab world right now is at heart a reaction against "realpolitic" secularists.

Live with it.

-- Edited by BigG on Friday 28th of January 2011 11:48:45 AM

Razorsharp · Guru

Did the riots in Egypt arise out of the riots in Tunisia? I heard a talking head suggest the unrest might spread west through Iran. I still can't figure this whole thing out?

At least so far we have not seen death to America signs everywhere. Or if there have been any, I haven't seen them on tv.

Woodwork · Senior Member

It would be worth noting that the Iranian Revolution was almost entirely secular ...until the mullahs took over about a year later.

In my world: Revolution=Bad.
We might as well call revolution 'the death of the innocents.'

I'm with Burke on this point.

DonnaL · Senior Member

Razorsharp wrote:

Usually the group with most guns wins. Is there an armed opposition group and what are their objectives? Or is this just a case of young unemployed kids having fun burning up stuff?

Not always, though. Not when the people with the guns aren't willing to use them on the protestors, or the people in charge of the people with guns don't have the will to order them to do so. As I'm sure you know, there have been a number of examples of that sort of thing happening in the last 25 years -- 1986 in the Philippines, 1989 throughout the Warsaw Pact, and so on.

What's particularly interesting is that this doesn't appear to be driven by the Muslim Brotherhood, but seems to be more secular in nature.

We don't know yet what the outcome will be in Egypt. I really have no idea.

-- Edited by DonnaL on Friday 28th of January 2011 10:50:32 AM

-- Edited by DonnaL on Friday 28th of January 2011 10:51:36 AM

pima · Guru

I heard not only that about internet and jamming cell phone signals, but they were now shooting tear gas.

Don't know how anyone can say that is stable...yet France seemed to come out alright after last summer's riots over retirement age, so who knows.

BigG · Guru

Isn't that how most people live all the time?

Disrespect the government, get smacked down?

Isn't President Mubarak "our boy"?

churchmusicmom · Veteran Member

Heard this morning that they gov't in Egypt has shut down the internet and the ability to do text messages. It is thought that cell phone service might also be shut down.

I cannot imagine how frightening, frustrating and provocative that would be! Scary stuff when people are not allowed to communicate.

soccerguy315 · Guru

I'm sure the US will ship Egypt as many guns as it wants to put down the rebellion.

Razorsharp · Guru

Usually the group with most guns wins. Is there an armed opposition group and what are their objectives? Or is this just a case of young unemployed kids having fun burning up stuff?

DonnaL · Senior Member

It doesn't seem very stable to me. Not to mention that Mubarak must be over 80 now, and who knows how successful he'll be in his plan to pass the reins to his son.

BigG · Guru

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSWEN640520110127

I hope so but judging from the wars and the state of the economy, I expect Egypt, as we have known it, is toast.