I don't see China with the capability or the inclination to take on the US militarily around the world within my life time, if ever.
I have said before that within ten years, China will be able to hold her own, fighting a defensive war, in her backyard. My position has not changed on this one.
China's main concern is not the 500 million that are relatively well-off, but the 800 million poor farmers in the countryside. Historically, this is where revolutions start, and their leadership know it.
While I can not see China as a military rival, I do see her as an economic competitor. I don't think the West has ever face a competitor this smart, and this driven before. It shall be interesting.
Looking ahead 30, 40 or 50 years is a mug's game. It is hard enough to see clearly 6 months ahead.
There would be no advanced weapon systems without government support for the development process.
Absolutely correct! Just too dang expensive and risky for private industry to do on its own.
But why does our government do it? Like you mentioned, they're just trying to ensure there IS a country to govern 30 - 50 years form now. It's in their own best interests...
-- Edited by Bullet on Sunday 19th of December 2010 06:52:00 PM
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
The Romans were effectively a dictatorship for centuries before they fell.
Very few countries have other than a name in common with what they were several hundred years ago. Thomas Jefferson wanted a nation of gentlemen farmers and considered industrialization a vice. We are far from that vision.
I keep coming back to this point but I feel it is valid. The function of government is to reconcile the time horizon of activities necessary for the survival of the society with the short term, self interested activities of private business. There would be no advanced weapon systems without government support for the development process.
Abyss makes a good point about the economic effectiveness of right wing dictatorships.
History tends to demonstrate that dictatorships have a tendency towards eventual failure. China's may last for a while, and their economy may keep moving right along because of it. Or the Chinese themselves may eventually rise up and forcefully remove the limitations their own government places on them. Who knows for sure?
Also, if people are seeing their lives improve, they will put up with a lot.
Or the way the world is flattening right now with free and unlimited access may show them just how much less they have than many other develpoed nations, and cause resentment. Why settle for a new moped when your neighbors are all getting new cars? Admittedly, China's access to this information is a little less free than most, but you can't stop the inevitable of information getting through in this digital age. Why do you think China's government is so fearful of it?
I think China will be at 90% of US military technical capability in ten years.
Trust me. Not even close.
They are traning a lot of scientists and engineers. They also have no concept of "intellectual property" and will steal what they cannot buy.
A very real issue and large concern. But not everything is a easy to buy or steal as you think.
The current "cloud" computing concept will just hand them everything they need to duplicate our stuff. It is hard enough to maintain cyber-security when one has physical possession of the servers.
And that is why we have secure networks, based on serves they will never obtain.
China's anti-satellite capability test on their own satellite was very effective.
It certainly was. Probably a decade's worth of effort on their part, starting from scratch, to demonstrate to the world they have that capability. We answered by duplicating their feat, albeit more accurately, within 30 days of our own effort, also starting from scratch.
Our biggest danger is to optimize our military to fight insurgents and neglect high tech weapons for economic reasons.
Amen, brother. And probably the greatest fear of those like me (and most military men with an ounce of intelligence) who have studied history and have learned the lessons so many forgot that the next war is NEVER like the last or current war. I don't think we will have complete access to Chinese airspace like we do in Afghanistan, if it comes to that.
What kind of economy will we have without a country?
I usually turns this statement around: what kind of country will we have without a strong economy? One that won't stay relevant, that is for sure. I can only hope our leadership understands this (and based on recent comments by President Obama, I think he gets it).
Abyss assumes we will blindly continue on the same path while China will inevitably remains on theirs over the next 30 -50 years. I only hope we're smarter than that, an only expect China's path won't be as easy as some believe. Abyss's main argument is China's size WILL make this inevitable. My retort is simply that it won't be as easy as he believes. Possible, but not inevitable.
Economy WILL play a factor in China's rise in military power, and they may even be smart enough to catch up on the 50+ year head start we had in military technology. They still have a loooooong way to go on that front...
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
Abyss makes a good point about the economic effectiveness of right wing dictatorships.
Also, if people are seeing their lives improve, they will put up with a lot.
I think China will be at 90% of US military technical capability in ten years. They are traning a lot of scientists and engineers. They also have no concept of "intellectual property" and will steal what they cannot buy.
The current "cloud" computing concept will just hand them everything they need to duplicate our stuff. It is hard enough to maintain cyber-security when one has physical possession of the servers.
China's anti-satellite capability test on their own satellite was very effective.
Our biggest danger is to optimize our military to fight insurgents and neglect high tech weapons for economic reasons.
What kind of economy will we have without a country?
Hong Kong, as a city, is not close to American cities. But that doesn't mean much - very few cities (even in first world economies) are.
That's 3-4 year old data and Chinese incomes are probably ~25% higher now. That income distribution is actually pretty similar to poorer areas of the US (certainly not bad places to live).
I'm not arguing about the present, everyone knows China is poor. I'm talking in 50 years and that's where it starts getting realistic. You are essentially saying that the development path that China is on will not replicate that of Japan/South Korea/Taiwan/Singapore. I'm saying that China merely has to develop reasonably similar to those countries and their population alone will allow their economy to dwarf the US. An average Chinese income of 20K/year would make the US economy appear small. They would only need, on average, a 3.5% income gain per year for 50 years to make that happen.
That seems quite realistic, especially looking at the current growth rates.
-- Edited by Abyss on Sunday 19th of December 2010 02:25:27 PM
-- Edited by Abyss on Sunday 19th of December 2010 02:25:48 PM
Let's examine just how well the average Chinese citizen is doing, shall we.
First off, let me correct an earlier mistake. I said 90% of the Chinese population is living in the rural area. I was in fact incorrect. it is about 60%.
Now, is the median wage in China getting better? You are correct, it is. "Skyrocketing" however is a matter of perspective.
Based on 2006 data (I know, dated. But I will get to that in a bit): the median income of a Chinese worker in Hong Kong (China's most prosperous city, but perhaps Beijing is close now) was about $1150 a month when compared to the US. About a $15K year salary in the most prosperous city. Care to compare that to places like NY or San Fran?
Now, in China's rural areas, the story is not so pretty. Average income in 2006? About $170 / month, for a whopping $2140 / year income. That's 60% of a 1.2 Billion population, about 720 MILLION people living the life of a peasant. Twice as many people as in the ENTIRE U.S.!
Granted, China's regime may subsidize many basic needs, but that equates to having to subsidize the standard of living for an awful lot of people.
Has China improved since 2006? Yeah, you may even say their experiencing "skyrocketing" increases, from dirt poor peasantry to just plain old peasantry in the rural areas. And those wage increases in the urban areas (significantly caused by international pressure to better the working conditions of it blue collar work force), while increasing, while place a downward pressure on China's economy, as the cost of goods made in China will increase, combined with access (and affordability) of international goods and services.
Yeah, China is improving, and may continue to grow for a while. But they have a loooooooong way to catch up to us (mass HAS given them an advantage), and we'll have to see how well it holds up.
As to military technology? Well, they done a good job making a old Russian derelict carrier look pretty for the photo op. Well see how well they can keep up the expansion of military capability, however. The PAK-FA their are making IS a good start for them, but still a few decades behind us in technology and capability.
50 years IS a long time, plenty of time for them to catch up in the race that may start. Our slowing down works to their advantage as well. But we don't know what will happen if China does hit that proverbial "runner's wall". Prophets of Doom do make an interesting noise usually, but just as usually they are proven just a little off....
Question for you, abyss. You think India may want to have a say as to whom should be the biggest kid on the block in that particular portion of the neighborhood?
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
At the risk of being tedious, I will point out, again, that while China may have previously been a country "built on Communist principals", they are now , in fact, the purest Fascists since the 1940's.
State directed free enterprise, oligarchial political power structure, hypernationalist with a touch of racism...
Completely understood and in agreement, thus my words "built on" instead of "based on". We'll also have to see just how well the 90% of the population currently living in poverty will be able to voice dissent and demand improvement of their current economic situation under this Fascists regime. Will they continue to quietly march along (usually under gun point to do so), or will they band together in a demand for reform (tough to stop a crowd of 1 Billion, even with a tank)?
What do you mean? The lives of peasants have been getting better. Median wages have been skyrocketing! You act as if China is more unequal than the US - it's not.
At the risk of being tedious, I will point out, again, that while China may have previously been a country "built on Communist principals", they are now , in fact, the purest Fascists since the 1940's.
State directed free enterprise, oligarchial political power structure, hypernationalist with a touch of racism...
The difference between right wing dictatorships and left wing dictatorships is that the right wing ones are actually quite effective in building a proper economy.
At the risk of being tedious, I will point out, again, that while China may have previously been a country "built on Communist principals", they are now , in fact, the purest Fascists since the 1940's.
State directed free enterprise, oligarchial political power structure, hypernationalist with a touch of racism...
Completely understood and in agreement, thus my words "built on" instead of "based on". We'll also have to see just how well the 90% of the population currently living in poverty will be able to voice dissent and demand improvement of their current economic situation under this Fascists regime. Will they continue to quietly march along (usually under gun point to do so), or will they band together in a demand for reform (tough to stop a crowd of 1 Billion, even with a tank)?
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
At the risk of being tedious, I will point out, again, that while China may have previously been a country "built on Communist principals", they are now , in fact, the purest Fascists since the 1940's.
State directed free enterprise, oligarchial political power structure, hypernationalist with a touch of racism...
China has a population that is triple those 3 countries (combined). I'm sure you can comprehend that salient difference.
If China had a population of ~200MM no one would care about it. It'd be like 1.5x Japans. The population size *is* the difference.
Certainly, and population size can also act as China's biggest stumbling block in it's march towards economic dominance. Last I heard, about 90% of China's population still lives in it's rural areas, at standard of living levels most of us would consider extreme poverty. Getting the standard of living level of those 1 Billion+ people will be a challenge. China, a country built on Communist principles, can't sustain the dichotomy of so few have so much more than so many forever.
But the strong central government (most would say "suppressive") will also have a say in the matter: should I spend the money required to pull the rest of the population into the 21st Century (infrastructure, education, industry, etc.), or should I buy a new aircraft carrier (with all the other support vessels and infrastructure required to make it an effective power projection platform).
Like I said, hard to predict the outcome. The odds are probably in your favor if you want to bet on the Chinese economy, but Vegas always has a way of taking your money...
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
Considering that China wasn't even in the conversation 15 years ago and now they are considered our biggest long term threat - a 25 year buffer doesn't seem all that big.
China has been in the conversation in military circles for a long time before that. Most of America just wasn't listening until they became the biggest potential adversary worth talking about.
Will you be the one that says even though their economy will become twice the size of ours - we'll still be ahead of them in military technology? Has a paradox like that ever happened in the history of time?
Bold statement, and very similar to the predictions on Japan's, Germany's, and (somewhat) Russia's economic status.
Do I believe America will remain the economic leader over the next half century? Not really sure, but I'm not about to go build a bomb shelter and learn Chinese like others out there. History is too full of examples of bold predictions not coming to fruition...
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
Bullet wrote:I'm currently working in the office that ensures that while they will exceed us in quantity in most areas, they still won't be able to overmatch us in quality (at least in tactical aviation). Their 25 years behind us today. While they're playing catch-up, we're still moving forward. Money DOES play a factor, and it will give them a speed advantage in catching up, but I just don't think they will overtake us.
Considering that China wasn't even in the conversation 15 years ago and now they are considered our biggest long term threat - a 25 year buffer doesn't seem all that big.
Will you be the one that says even though their economy will become twice the size of ours - we'll still be ahead of them in military technology? Has a paradox like that ever happened in the history of time?
They will exceed us in mass and quality in 50 years. Military technology is a function of economy size. And their economy will be bigger than ours in that timeframe (although GDP per capita will be lower).
I'm currently working in the office that ensures that while they will exceed us in quantity in most areas, they still won't be able to overmatch us in quality (at least in tactical aviation). Their 25 years behind us today. While they're playing catch-up, we're still moving forward. Money DOES play a factor, and it will give them a speed advantage in catching up, but I just don't think they will overtake us.
All nuclear deterrent capability is just one technological innovation away from obsolescence.
Correct, and as of right this moment, we're the only one working on a system with any chance of success. But who is to say today's technology for a delivery method will be tomorrow's?
Our nuclear deterrent may well be our Maginot Line.
Maginot Line -- defensive capability that the current technology and improved tactics easily overcame. Nuclear deterrent -- offensive capability that current technology (and perhaps through the next 20+ years) can NOT overcome, and tactics would mean delivery methods, which we could ALSO improve.
You're analogy is a little off.
And we aren't that stupid or arrogant. We aren't just sitting in a bunker eating baguettes doing nothing. We ARE one of the few actually looking at ways to adapt and advance.
We'll probably be the first that makes nuclear deterrence obsolete.
What concerns me is that government austerity programs will impact our ability to develop new weapons systems first.
Me too, brother. Me too. You've hit on our Achilles heel, and the only reason China is able to make progress as they catch up. The ultimate question becomes: will China have the economy required to both balance the progress of a 1 Billion+ population AND have the necessary money to catch up to us (HUUUUUGE bill for that one)? This has yet to be determined...
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
Mass? Already in regards to ground forces. A while more before they catch up in air and naval forces.
Quality? Probably never.
BUT: Mass has a quality all its own sometimes in war.
I do think both sides having nuclear weapons will have a bigger say in the matter. THAT kind of mass beats any effort to hold the balance of forces in any method. Just don't see either side risking an all out war between us with those weapons in the equation.
Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.); it's seems so illogical and so against our human nature, but it works...
They will exceed us in mass and quality in 50 years. Military technology is a function of economy size. And their economy will be bigger than ours in that timeframe (although GDP per capita will be lower).
Mass? Already in regards to ground forces. A while more before they catch up in air and naval forces.
Quality? Probably never.
BUT: Mass has a quality all its own sometimes in war.
I do think both sides having nuclear weapons will have a bigger say in the matter. THAT kind of mass beats any effort to hold the balance of forces in any method. Just don't see either side risking an all out war between us with those weapons in the equation.
Mutually Assured Destruction (M.A.D.); it's seems so illogical and so against our human nature, but it works...
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
We're going to start seeing a lot more articles like this.
China is going from 0 aircraft carriers to 3 pretty soon. I don't think any military analyst deludes themself to think the end is within the next decade. But within 30-50 years? Yeah, it'll happen.
