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Political & Elections -> Political & Elections - 2014 -> Home values tumble $1.7 trillion in 2010 ($9 trillion since 2005)
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pima


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Date: Dec 11, 2010
Home values tumble $1.7 trillion in 2010 ($9 trillion since 2005)
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First since you kept throwing straw man out there, let's put it out there

To "attack a straw man" is to create the illusion of having refuted a proposition by substituting it with a superficially similar yet unequivalent proposition (the "straw man"), and refuting it, without ever having actually refuted the original position

I have linked BAH rates to show how the market is different across the nation. I have stated that I know RE facts and would gladly discuss eminent domain with you or RE tax assessment is not RE value. You have opted to ignore these responses and say "STRAW MAN"

> BTW are you a REALTOR? Do you have an RE License with NH and NAR? I
> have a license, nationally and with VA, so please don't throw that
> straw man crap unless you can start discussions about eminent domain,
> how to break a contract, MIL tax rate, Civil rights, ADA, etc.

If you have a complaint with something that I wrote, please post the
quotation. I've called you on several straw man arguments and do not
know which one you are referring to.

You did not respond to the questions, you deflected it by saying prove me wrong. Hard to prove you wrong when you keep deflecting.



I asked because if you don't know mil tax rate, than you can't get how the county makes yp their budget. If you don't know the foreclosure system do you know how it works for RE taxes, and how the mill rate changes based on the RE assessment?

This is not straw man, this is true dollars and cents.

If I was take a poll right now, I would bet my kids lives that the majority of posters here on this site do not know if their rate is above 1.0 or below without pulling out their RE tax bill. I bet they could not tell me what their house is assessed at for RE purposes, and the drop dead date for RE tax challenges. Homeowners get the bill and toss it in the can. They don't realize that their own county could be ripping them off big time.

This topic is not about gold, but home prices.

> What exatly is it meant when I say 80/15/5 compared to 80/5/15 or what
> is a 3 yr arm and the percentage pts they can change? When can they
> change? What is LIBOR, and how does impact the buyer? What is a
> "clean" contract? Should I go futher? What the hell!

I'm a gold trader. LIBOR? Please.

This is a topic about home values correct?

LIBOR is instrumental in the loan rate. You need to understand the mtg system to understand the home values tumbling.

Someone who took an 80/10/10 in 03 with a 3/27 understands that the LIBOR was a factor. What they means to them is they brought 10% to the table took a first with a 3 yr ARM for 80% and a second for 10%. AT day 1 starting yr 4 the LIBOR would determine their new rate. Typically they can charge 1-2% pts more. People who bought these homes with this type of mtg expected pay raises or housing prices to increase so they could at least change to fix. What they got was the market crashed and now the mtg was going to increase by hundreds of dollars per month.

Not a straw man, that is fact.

> You didn't write anything, you posted numbers.and quotes I posted
> responses to the numbers/quotes you posted.

So what's your complaint and why are you trying to strawman my position?

As others have stated Zillow is not a site like the NAR or MRIS. he website uses a proprietary algorithm called the "Zestimate" to appraise property values based on undisclosed factors

Notice three key words
1. Algorithms
2. Zestimates
3. undisclosed factors

In the RE world we have every factor, including things like bank owned, and seller subsidy.

Zillow does not use that.

Using Zillow is a straw man.

The thing with stating straw man is that it is an easy out. Say it and thus, it must be so.

You have stated I am using a straw man approach, and honestly I don't care; because everytime you do I go back and illustrate how you ignore what I ask and divert the subject.

I would much rather be called a straw man, than someone who refuses to defend their position.

BTW I am not a betting woman, but 10 would get me 20 that people who hold a tg or looking for one can tell me when is the best time to buy, Bond market up or down?


-- Edited by pima on Saturday 11th of December 2010 01:16:55 PM

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BCEagle91


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Some links that I found quickly on gold-eagle.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02/smithf022502.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/watson052809.html

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/willis112804.html

I need to go through them later at home. My recollection was that it was to generate inflation but I haven't read this stuff in a long time.

I also have a few articles published at Gold-Eagle.com from many years ago when I did a lot more writing on PM issues.

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BCEagle91


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I enjoy the feeling of an ounce of gold or platinum in my hands too.

Platinum eagles are not as elegant as gold eagles and there are a lot of very nice coins from other countries. I think that the Austrian Philharmonika and Chinese Panda coins along with the US eagle are in my favorites category. The easiest to come by are the South African Krugerrands which are butt ugly and they come in a bunch of different colors as they add hardeners. Many look more orange than gold. The US eagles have hardener too but the color variation is much less than the SA coins.

If you hold a lot of .999 gold in Canadian Maples, you have the problem of scratching. These are normally stored in plastic tubes of ten and you can scratch the coins just by shaking them out of the tube or putting them in carelessly. The US eagles are much more resistant to scratching. The US also has .9999 coins for collectors that want that.

One way to own near-physical is with shares of the Central Fund of Canada. They hold gold and silver bullion in a vault in Canada and it's audited every year. You can trade it like a stock and it isn't subject to the collectables tax treatment that other gold and silver investments are.

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longprime


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http://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
kitco.com
historical gold charts and data

The fixing of gold pricing, 1932, was in response to a deflation in the money supply/us/world economy. The effect of then price fix was to inflate and stimulate the economies.

I am not an expert and someone will need to verify.evileye


-- Edited by longprime on Thursday 9th of December 2010 03:55:45 PM

-- Edited by longprime on Thursday 9th of December 2010 04:02:30 PM

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BigG


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Did the US government seize gold in the '30s because it needed the gold?

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longprime


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I used the wrong wording. BC is correct. 

I meant that private bullion was made exchangeable to the fixed government pricing. Gold/silver coins exchangeable to certificates.

I am ambivalent to physical or fiat gold other than it looks nice (no other color like 24K gold) and feels nicer. evileye


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BCEagle91


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> So what if the Government can seize fiat gold. Government can also go
> to the Gold Standard (father & son senators) and make owning physical
> gold illegal.

In the 1930s, the US Government did seize gold but do you think that
they went around and took wedding rings off of the hands of their
citizens or had them open their mouths to extract their gold fillings?
How about taking the gold off the top of the state Capitol buildings?

There were exemptions for things like jewelry and home fixtures and
probably lots of other things. One interesting effect is that many
took their gold coins and had them drilled (destroying the numismatic
value) and then ran a chain through them. Instant gold necklaces.
Of course you'd probably throw out your back wearing one but it was
jewelry now and exempt.

If you're truly paranoid as was Warren Buffett, you'd hold it in
another country. Warren held his PMs in England. A better place to
hold it might be in Australia or Canada where they produce a lot of
gold. Those governments really don't need to seize gold as they can
just seize the mines (or take back the mineral rights) and produce
their own.



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longprime


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So what if the Government can seize fiat gold. evileye
Government can also go to the Gold Standard (father & son senators) and make owning physical gold illegal.


-- Edited by longprime on Thursday 9th of December 2010 02:42:11 PM

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BCEagle91


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A real hoarder would have bought physical. The government can seize all of the precious metals and precious metals miners holdings of a mutual fund.

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longprime


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yeh, he knows. 
Which is the reason why he's looking for an exit.

He is, however, a property manager and hoarder. Not a good combo.evileye


-- Edited by longprime on Thursday 9th of December 2010 02:32:03 PM

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BCEagle91


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400% return for 25 years isn't so hot.

Lots of tech stocks and PM miners have done much better than that. That fund was essentially sideways for 22 years from 1980 to 2002.

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longprime


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Currently reading, TOO BIG TO FAIL, A. Sorkin. 
A story of the two legs (Governments and Banks/Investment Houses) of the stool (crap) of folly.
There's at least one other leg-Those who didn't leverage, but lost liquidity and values.
evileye


-- Edited by longprime on Thursday 9th of December 2010 02:26:17 PM

-- Edited by longprime on Thursday 9th of December 2010 02:26:46 PM

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longprime


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gold tradersmile

My coffee partner has a lot of Franklin Gold. Held on for 25 years.

Told him that W's Tax Cut may expire this year, because D's are opposed to the compromise tax/stimuli of Pres Obama. He could be looking for a big cap gains tax.
evileye


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BCEagle91


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> Okay instead of throwing numbers to divert the issue, say what you mean.

Do you have a problem with facts? I can post an economic piece for
discussion. I may or may not have a position but I'm under no
obligation to state one even if I do. I may choose to argue one or the
other perspective whether or not I agree with it.

> BTW are you a REALTOR? Do you have an RE License with NH and NAR? I
> have a license, nationally and with VA, so please don't throw that
> straw man crap unless you can start discussions about eminent domain,
> how to break a contract, MIL tax rate, Civil rights, ADA, etc.

If you have a complaint with something that I wrote, please post the
quotation. I've called you on several straw man arguments and do not
know which one you are referring to.

> What exatly is it meant when I say 80/15/5 compared to 80/5/15 or what
> is a 3 yr arm and the percentage pts they can change? When can they
> change? What is LIBOR, and how does impact the buyer? What is a
> "clean" contract? Should I go futher? What the hell!

I'm a gold trader. LIBOR? Please.

> Tell me can an a alcoholic be discriminated against compared to a
> recovering alcoholic?

> Can a pregnant single woman be denied a rental compared to a single
> mom?

> If you hand a blue pen to a black client, but a pencil to a white
> client can you up on ethics charges?

> RE is not a straw man.

Your arguments are.

> You didn't write anything, you posted numbers.and quotes I posted
> responses to the numbers/quotes you posted.

So what's your complaint and why are you trying to strawman my position?

> You have yet to give any opinion, except for: I'm a student of bubbles
> and watching one unwind is truly a fascinating view into human
> psychology.

Well, you posted what you thought to be my position and now you're saying
that I didn't post an opinion. Did you just figure this out?

> You post numbers from the sources you pick and choose, that is fine by
> me. What isn't fine is when you say my repsonses are straw man and
> you never come back to defend your position.

Go read the definition of a strawman.



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pima


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Okay instead of throwing numbers to divert the issue, say what you mean.

BTW are you a REALTOR? Do you have an RE License with NH and NAR? I have a license, nationally and with VA, so please don't throw that straw man crap unless you can start discussions about eminent domain, how to break a contract, MIL tax rate, Civil rights, ADA, etc.

What exatly is it meant when I say 80/15/5 compared to 80/5/15  or what is a 3 yr arm and the percentage pts they can change?  When can they change?  What is LIBOR, and how does impact the buyer? What is a "clean" contract?  Should I go futher?  What the hell!

Tell me can an a alcoholic be discriminated against compared to a recovering alcoholic?

Can a pregnant single woman be denied a rental compared to a single mom?

If you hand a blue pen to a black client, but a pencil to a white client can you up on ethics charges?

RE is not a straw man.

You didn't write anything, you posted numbers.and quotes I posted responses to the numbers/quotes you posted.

You have yet to give any opinion, except for:
I'm a student of bubbles and watching one unwind is truly a fascinating view into human psychology.

Otherwise this is what you posted verbatim:

his year's drop in home values is 63% bigger than the $1 trillion dip in 2009, and brings the total value lost since the housing market's peak in 2006 to a whopping $9 trillion.

"Unfortunately, with foreclosures near an all-time high in late 2010 and high rates of negative equity persisting, it does not appear that the first part of 2011 will bring much relief," Humphries said.

Only 24% of the 129 markets Zillow tracked increased in total home value this year. Home values increased $10.8 billion in the Boston metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and $10.2 billion in San Diego MSA.

The areas suffering the biggest drops in home prices include New York City, which lost $103.7 billion in value and Los Angeles, where home values fell $38.6 billion.

The steep declines in home values are pushing Americans further under water every year. In the third quarter of 2010, 23.2% of single family homeowners with mortgages owed more on their mortgage than their home was worth -- up from 21.8% in 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/09/real_estate/home_value/index.htm

AND

I heard on the radio that the Fed said that housing values declined by 3+ percent for the year. I guess the number for the total value of the housing stock is needed to confirm (or not) the Zillow estimate.

PLUS
According to the Fed, household net worth is now off $11 Trillion from the peak in 2007, but up $5.8 trillion from the trough in Q1 2009.

The Fed estimated that the value of household real estate fell $684 billion to $16.55 trillion in Q3 2010, from $17.2 trillion in Q2 2010.

http://www.forextv.com/forex-news-story/forex-q3-flow-of-funds-household-real-estate-assets-declined-650-billion-in-q3-2010

Sounds like the Zillow estimate is conservative relative to the Fed's numbers

You post numbers from the sources you pick and choose, that is fine by me.  What isn't fine is when you say my repsonses are straw man and you never come back to defend your position.






-- Edited by pima on Thursday 9th of December 2010 01:04:47 PM

-- Edited by pima on Thursday 9th of December 2010 01:13:40 PM

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Razorsharp


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This is why I am trying to buy real estate as an investment. Population continues to increase and they have to live somewhere. New housing starts used to average about 1.5 million per years but are down to about 500000 per year. Once the foreclosures pass through the system, it will be uphill for home values at least that is what I am betting on.

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BCEagle91


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You've written a bunch of straw man statements. Those first two that you attribute to me are not my positions. Neither are the last two.

Read what I write without reading in your own subjective conclusions and bias.


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pima


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Sorry, but BC I don't get you.

250k thread and it is their fault; tightening belts.

This thread and you seem to understand the hardship of homeowners. 250 K thread and it is a screw you, even of they are the ones under water.

Where do you actually stand?

Are you pitying the homeowner who makes 245K and under water while the 250K should eat crap?

You make 250K and you are wealthy regardless of where you live, buy over your head and we need to feel bad?

I can't follow you in your rationale. 




-- Edited by pima on Thursday 9th of December 2010 12:18:47 PM

-- Edited by pima on Thursday 9th of December 2010 12:20:15 PM

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BCEagle91


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According to the Fed, household net worth is now off $11 Trillion from the peak in 2007, but up $5.8 trillion from the trough in Q1 2009.

The Fed estimated that the value of household real estate fell $684 billion to $16.55 trillion in Q3 2010, from $17.2 trillion in Q2 2010.

http://www.forextv.com/forex-news-story/forex-q3-flow-of-funds-household-real-estate-assets-declined-650-billion-in-q3-2010

Sounds like the Zillow estimate is conservative relative to the Fed's numbers.

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BCEagle91


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I heard on the radio that the Fed said that housing values declined by 3+ percent for the year. I guess the number for the total value of the housing stock is needed to confirm (or not) the Zillow estimate.



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pima


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This is the problem with today's society they believe sites like Zillow. Zillow uses a generic formula.

Unfortunately for FSBO, people buy into this crap.

Want to know what your house is truly worth...ask a realtor to pull up the comps. They will be more than happy to do this and they will not charge you a penny. Bank appraisals mean squat because they are giving a loan for the amt. IF the house is worth 699K and you paid 599, the appraisal will typically be 599K, because that is their risk. Insurance appraisal will always be off because the house can burn down, but the land remains. thus they only care about replacement. RE appraisals are tied to the MIL rate, thus it is not an appraisal rate.

If you don't want to call a realtor for an assesment go to sites like realtor.com (place your zip) or homesdatabase.com.  Also look to see the common realty signs in your area, and go to their website. 

It is easy to get a comp price by using realtor.com

-- Edited by pima on Thursday 9th of December 2010 11:04:35 AM

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SamuraiLandshark


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I just checked Zillow for our home.

It says it's 2 bedrooms - it's really 4.  It says it has 1 bathroom.  We have two.

I haven't had an appraisal recently - last one in 2005. At that point it valued for 200,000 more than Zillow says.

It's just a guesstimate.


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busdriver11


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I wouldn't put too much stock in Zillow valuations. They do some formulaic crap that really isn't very accurate. I'd trust my realtor's opinion much more. Though Zillow might get the trends right.

We just had two appraisals done to refinance, plus another bank one for a HELOC. They did annoyingly detailed appraisals, and each appraised the home between-300-400K more than Zillow. On the overestimation side, the day we bought the home, four years ago, Zillow said it was worth 500K more than what we bought it for. I mean, if you can't get your numbers closer than that, their system is highly inaccurate.

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BCEagle91


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This year's drop in home values is 63% bigger than the $1 trillion dip in 2009, and brings the total value lost since the housing market's peak in 2006 to a whopping $9 trillion.

"Unfortunately, with foreclosures near an all-time high in late 2010 and high rates of negative equity persisting, it does not appear that the first part of 2011 will bring much relief," Humphries said.

Only 24% of the 129 markets Zillow tracked increased in total home value this year. Home values increased $10.8 billion in the Boston metropolitan statistical area (MSA), and $10.2 billion in San Diego MSA.

The areas suffering the biggest drops in home prices include New York City, which lost $103.7 billion in value and Los Angeles, where home values fell $38.6 billion.

The steep declines in home values are pushing Americans further under water every year. In the third quarter of 2010, 23.2% of single family homeowners with mortgages owed more on their mortgage than their home was worth -- up from 21.8% in 2009.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/12/09/real_estate/home_value/index.htm

I'm a student of bubbles and watching one unwind is truly a fascinating view into human psychology.

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