If China ever become the sole world power, and it is a big if, I expect to see the following based on history:
1) NK and SK, or a unified Korea will become a tributary state as of old, but China will not annex it.
2) Taiwan will become a de facto province of China, if she is not annexed outright. This is more than just a case of regaining lost territory, but to prevent a hostile power from gaining control of the island, and thus be able to blockade the Taiwan Strait, cutting China's north from the south by sea. The recent incident with Japan is part and parcel of this grand strategy.
3) China does not accept the McMahon Line, so there will be problems with India over what was traditionally southern Tibet, the land of the black hats (Arunachal Pradesh . China sees historic Tibet as their land.
4) Nationalist China signed away Outer Mongolia under pressure from the Soviet Union. I have no idea if the Chinese would annex the place if they can. I suspect it will become another tributary state.
5) While the Chinese are an inward looking people, they will develop a blue water navy because their need for resources from abroad will force their hand.
.....it's ludicrous to think that the #2 economy in the world will annex the #15 economy in the world with anything less than WW III breaking out......
Not to mention that that #15 economy spends 1/3 of its budget on defense. It will be no fun for China trying to annex the Korean pennisula. I would guess a lot less fun than the US starting war in Iraq. That was no fun we now know. If they want to do it, they should do it before unification. It's easier to swallow in pieces.
I suspect that China has figured out that the way to "true" world domination is economic, and the Koreans simply represent more consumers to them. The less war the better when it comes to selling things.
Unfortunately, we seem to be failing in the basic understanding that a thinly stretched overburdened and economically debilitating military has been the downfall of every previous superpower in history.
Of course, in 300 years or so, the Chinese will probably be lamenting the same thing.
-- Edited by poetgrl on Saturday 4th of December 2010 09:36:27 PM
Would a unified Korea be a target for Chinese annexation?
Would this be a bad thing?
How is Hong Kong doing?
Thoughts?
South Koreans would most likely rather nuke their own country into the Pacific Ocean rather than give up their hard-earned country over to the Chinese.
I think a Tibet-South Korea analogy is ridiculous. Maybe 50 years ago, when Korea was a global non-entity, it might've been arguable. But in today's age when no two industrialized nations go to war with each other, it's ludicrous to think that the #2 economy in the world will annex the #15 economy in the world with anything less than WW III breaking out.
Has China actually invaded anyone or otherwise started a war since the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979? It certainly seems to have less of a propensity to do so than some countries I can think of.
1) Didn't have the power projection capability to accomplish it. AND was held in check by the American presence in the region (up until now). Don't think the soviets would have sat back and watched China expand in their backyard either, when the soviets still had the power to do something about it. I imagine without our presence (and the threat of Soviet "displeasure" if started annexing neighboring countries), Taiwan would have fallen long ago, and most likely Vietnam, Cambodia, and a few others in the region.
So China went a different path -- build up their economy first, THEN build up their military might. Step one pretty much accomplished. Step 2 is underway.
2) Too busy consolidating and maintaining their power over their own people. Trying to subjogate 1 Billion + is a lot of work! Good thing those tanks come in handy when you want to break up a civil protest in Tianamen Square!
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
Has China actually invaded anyone or otherwise started a war since the Sino-Vietnamese War in 1979? It certainly seems to have less of a propensity to do so than some countries I can think of.
China did annex Tibet in 1949, unfortunately. However, Tibet did not have the World's #1 Superpower covering it with its nuclear umbrella. This is the case for South Korea, and would likely remain the case with a unified Korea. If China just took over North Korea, I don't think many people would object, as long as South Korea remained unharmed.
Hong Kong was thrown in as an example of a capitalist entity subsumed into China.
Of course the Chinese are not communists, they are fascists; politically oligarichial with strong state direction of private business coupled with extream nationalism.
As far as annexation and "empire building"; start small and grow. It worked economically...
As far as spending on North Korea infrastructure, if you own the results of the expenditure it is indeed an investment. The US government doesn't "invest" in foreign nations, it gives things away for free.
-- Edited by BigG on Wednesday 1st of December 2010 06:34:31 AM
-- Edited by BigG on Wednesday 1st of December 2010 06:37:15 AM
Would a unified Korea be a target for Chinese annexation?
Nope. Never. No way.
Say Korea does unify. Would China REALLY want to the MASSIVE investmetn it would take to fix the infrastructure of N. Korea? Would they want to have to fix 60+ years of brain washing of the that population (get them from undying worship of the Dear Leader to undying worship of the Dear Party)? Is China in a rush to go to war with the US, S. Korea's biggest ally? Wouls S. Korea REALLY want to give up their autonomy and their economy to join into the Chinese collective?
Would this be a bad thing?
Quite frankly, if China TRIED to annex a unified Korea, it could be the opening shots of WW III. Do you consider THAT a bad thing?
How is Hong Kong doing?
Quite fine, for a CITY-STATE, with a population made up of mostly people with CHINESE ANCESTRY, and an economy exponentially smaller than Korea's.
And remember, China didn't ANNEX Hong Kong, the lease expired and the kicked out the renters (G. Britian). Very differnet situation in Korea.
I'm glad for the laugh, however. Good to see many have gone back to the 1950's in the way we fear for the future; we just replaced the Boogey-man we fear from the Soviet Union to China.
Do me a favor, as you build your bomb shelters to hoard your gold, don't forget to shut off the gas to you house. Wouldn't want to any unfortunate accidents to happen in your absence...
__________________
You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
How about China attacking NK and taking the place over. They could then run the place or turn it over the SK. NK's weapons are aimed elsewhere; not China.
I wouldn't have a problem either way: China running NK or turning it over SK.
HK was doing fine economically before China took it over and HK was highly desired. I don't know if China really wants NK.
