Oil drillers may get nervous when oil continues to drop. Texas crude prices 05/04/2012 drops below $100/barrel. Canadian tar sand oil producers need oil to be priced ~$80/barrel to make a profit.
Rep Markey (2012): This is not about Obama. The price of oil is set by a cartel of OPEC sheikhs.
Rep Markey (2008): The incredible escalation of gas and oil prices is not an accident; it is the result of more than seven years of this [Bush] administration pushing an energy policy solely focused on fossil fuels.
$3.79 in Texas, of all places. Chu's misplaced love of all things Continental (well, gas prices anyway) aside, I'll have to admit feeling a tad froggy myself when I fed the Suburban today.
That glowing economic recovery theme of a few weeks ago seems to be sinking in the reality of rising gas prices.
The 20-page study, which highlighted rising domestic oil and gas production and Obama's steps to lift fuel efficiency, showed U.S. oil imports declined to 8.4 million barrels a day by the end of 2011, versus 11 million barrels a day in January 2009.
The White House said his policies were tackling a troubling topic for many Americans. This was underlined by a new Washington Post-ABC poll, which showed disapproval of Obama's handling of the economy increased to 59 percent, from 53 percent when the survey was taken last month.
Nearly two-thirds of those polled said they did not approve of his handling of the situation with gas prices.
This administration is widely thought of as both intelligent and sophisticated by those who feel they're both - have any of either mob considered that oil consumption is closely tied to economic activity? Or, that highlighting lower rates of imports tends to detract from the argument that Keystone XL is all about bringing oil to the Gulf Coast, so it can be refined and exported? (The latter's always been kind of a loser anyway, if you're claiming you're all about high paying, value added jobs, since taking something ordinary and turning it into something expensive for foreigners to buy is the name of the game.)
-- Edited by catahoula on Monday 12th of March 2012 08:11:23 PM
Iraq did get the money from their oil that was necessary to rebuild, but they didn't use it because the US decided (bad policy) that we should pay for a lot of it instead. If you were Iraq, why would you pay for something that someone else volunteered to pay for?
Test drove a Volt with DW, Sunday 03/11/2012. We get a $25 for use at either Costco or HomeDepot. Based on our driving habits we could buy gas 1x/mn max and replace two cars with one car being used more frequently. A potential saving of 42gals/mn (1 barrel oil wo processing energy costs); $162 @$4.00/gal or $110 barrel oil.
DW drives a Prius 2008. I have a Civic 1999, that I hate.
Nice car. Lots of advance technology. However GM should have spent a little more effort into the low tech/low cost/humanfactors items and design.
I think gasoline should be priced fairly and accurately to reflect its true value and without subsidy. Nothing like $4.50-$5.00 gas to remove from our roads, low efficiency % poorly maintained cars.
-- Edited by longprime on Sunday 11th of March 2012 05:05:57 PM
Time out for a second, just so I can make sure I am right when it comes to what yr we are in.
It is 2012, correct?
Seriously, Bush did what he did regarding his administration in 08. Obama has had 3 yrs to do what he wanted as President. Why re-hash this issue? Tit-for-tat? Your party did this, so cut our party a break? Bush is gone, Obama is here.
Obama's administration has had other issues that the Bush administration didn't. I.E. housing implosion. Bush administration had other issues than Clinton. I.E. 9/11
Don't try to equate each administration as if they all had the same issues; nationally or internationally.
Gas prices are the hot topic and Obama's numbers will decrease IMPO, even if unemployment ticks down. JMPO, but only a fool would believe if gas is at $4.50/gal in Nov. Obama is a sure shot for re-election.
Gas prices touch every voter in everyday life and the avg voter will say I don't give a sheaat about Bush, that was 4 yrs ago, I give a sheaat about today and that is Obama.
If you are for or against Obama, don't drag Bush into the equation. Fair fight is R's plan vs. Obama.
-- Edited by pima on Sunday 11th of March 2012 12:59:05 PM
__________________
Raising a teenager is like nailing Jello to a tree
The plan by the Bush administration was for Iraqi oil to pay for reconstruction. Paul Wolfowitz went further than that, saying that the reason Iraq was invaded was because it is "swimming in a sea of oil" and that "'the cost of the occupation, the cost for the military administration and providing for a provisional [civilian] administration, all of that would come out of Iraqi oil.'"
Iraq was already exporting oil before the war... are you saying we invaded Iraq so they could increase their oil production, thus driving down world gas prices?
Well, I am kinda surprised that in 2008, Iraqi oil accounted for 5% of the imported oil. Forgot that under the War Plan, the Oil was to fund the War. Or was that the First Iraqi War and not the second Iraqi War?
There is some issues of oil whether it came from kuwait or from iraq.
Offhand without doing a lot of research, USA did not import much Gulf oil, directly. It is too far to ship when other sources are closer and within fairly easy USA Naval response.
"What W did, was to promote the concept of oil independence by developing (Cheny's private energy conference, gasohol subsidy) and securing the sources of oil (Iraq & Afganistan). "
Are you sure about this? I thought our blood in Iraq went to oil for China.
What W did, was to promote the concept of oil independence by developing (Cheny's private energy conference, gasohol subsidy) and securing the sources of oil (Iraq & Afganistan). He ignored the other side of energy consumption- conservation and efficiency.
If you are in business, the key to making more money is Always efficiency because efficiency will make more money, for longer times, at less cost and is more assured.
Mom has saved 3+ barrels of oil/yr by going to better windows and renewable energy, at cheaper pricing --FOREVER. Contrast that to. Drill Baby, Drill-
-- Edited by longprime on Wednesday 7th of March 2012 07:41:12 PM
I've got to say that if he's going to peddle this sort of drivel, he deserves to be hung out to dry with everything he's done to discourage domestic production, while loading my kids up with debt from the green money giveaway:
In a new advertisement released by the Obama For America (OFA) campaign, credit for rising domestic oil production in the U.S. is given to President Obama.
OFA: Boost U.S. oil protection? Under President Obama it's already the highest in eight years. Obama's all of the above energy strategy is a real plan to get real control of run away gas prices and cut our reliance on foreign oil.
An absolutely perfect gusher of BS and he's buying responsibilty for gas prices with it, no matter how high they rise.
Charts and apologists aside, it's a conundrum isn't it? GW watched oil go to 140+ for no explicable reason, powerless to stop the speculation, and still got the blame for gas prices
Well, my conscience is entirely clean on this count because I never blamed W for the price of gasoline or the cost of oil by the barrel, no matter how high prices got, because one thing I do understand about the global oil market is that it's a complex machine with many, many moving parts. Of course some might speculate that because I voted for W twice, I was unable to maintain any sort of objectivity concerning him. But, I doubt it. It just offends my sense of fairness when people are blamed for things over which they essentially have no control.
One thing that has me puzzled is the fact that we are now exporting more refined oil than at any time during the past number of years. Why are we exporting so much oil, when it's clearly needed at home? If we kept more of our domestic supply, wouldn't gas prices be lower domestically as well? And along those lines, why are we closing down refineries instead of ramping up, or building new ones? Yes, I admit to having very little understanding of the economic, and geo-political machinations of big oil.
Its not his fault - anybody who says it is such as Gingrich is a liar and knows it.
Charts and apologists aside, it's a conundrum isn't it? GW watched oil go to 140+ for no explicable reason, powerless to stop the speculation, and still got the blame for gas prices (by the media, channeling some political figures who's party affliation escapes me at the moment, but not who got the blame). And with him being a proponent of development, too, a serial enabler of Haliburton and the rest, right along with their inside man, Cheney.
In light of that, it has to suck to be the guy that confided he was not only OK with higher energy prices but felt that in the overall scheme of things, they were a good thing. Really hard to escape that one, I'm afraid, since Chu's still singing the tune.
Yep, might be unfair, but there's no guarantee of justice in this life, even if the no-growth lobby thinks you're cool.
-- Edited by catahoula on Sunday 4th of March 2012 08:32:48 PM
USA may be a importer of refined products in March. BP-CherryPoint refinery in WA will be shut down for 6 weeks due to maintenance and repair from a explosion and fire. Alaskan oil will be to be redirected to other US refiners and imported oil that was to be refined need to be redirected to somewhere else. The BP refinery supplied much of the PNW diesel and gasoline. Alaskan oil must by law, be shipped to USA refineries.
Many crude exporting countries have limited refining capacity perhaps because refineries are easily sabotaged. Such countries need to import refined products.
Conservation efforts, more efficient cars and trucks, and warm weather have contributed to demand reduction. On the supply side, oil well fracting and horizontal drilling have made poor performing wells, good performing wells.
I'll make a pretty good wager that your car gets better gas milage than your last car. As I said earlier, Mom's house has saved 10+ barrels of oil over the last 3 years, bc of better windows and utilizing a heatpump with renewable sourced electricity.
-- Edited by longprime on Sunday 4th of March 2012 08:16:09 PM
Higher oil goes, faster drillers will drill and bring oil to market.
A lot of new oil production in USA Not too many drillers of gas anymore-well head prices are nothing and there is nowhere to send it except to Canadian tar sands where its now making bitumen cheaper to recover.
-- Edited by longprime on Sunday 4th of March 2012 11:13:06 AM
Recently, rising oil prices have spawned headlines warning of an impending price shock—or suggesting investors are simply complacent regarding risks posed by higher oil prices.
We’ve previously documented the lack of evidentiary support for the theory high oil prices on their own automatically sap stocks, so we’ll not rehash that here. But some take a slightly different angle on rising oil—claiming consumer spending is negatively affected, thus impacting economic growth. We have myriad quibbles with this demand-side theory. For example, if it’s true rising oil prices directly hammer consumer spending, then shouldn’t falling oil prices buoy sales? But that’s not the historical norm. Oil prices rose higher than current levels in early 2011 and similar fears swirled. Yet retail sales (excluding gasoline station sales) fell in only one month of the year. Which month? May—when oil prices also fell. Now obviously, that's just one year. But the reality is it isn't so unusual to see rising oil prices coupled with economic growth.
An often overlooked point in the frequent media handwringing over rising oil is it’s an economically sensitive substance—like many basic commodities. Increasing demand brought by expanding economies typically does manifest itself in higher prices (to the extent demand growth outpaces supply growth). Consider 2001’s less-than-$20-per-barrel oil—which grew to about $100, all while the economy grew. (Price movement driven in no small measure by Emerging Markets’—particularly Asia’s—sharp consumption growth.) And last year’s macroeconomic fear-driven correction applied to both stocks and oil. Yet today, as data have repeatedly shown global economic growth, both stocks and oil have staged comebacks. Not very surprising, keeping oil’s economic sensitivity in mind.
But some will argue another factor is in play—Iran. Folks postulate if tensions develop into war with Iran, oil prices will spike—a shock to the economy. While it is possible geopolitical concerns of a major, surprising nature could impact both oil and the economy, some perspective is in order.
If you’ve heard of Iran tensions—and most have, considering they’ve been near-endlessly discussed on television—then chances are major oil market participants have, too. These producers, traders and companies consuming vast quantities of oil likely aren’t just sitting on their hands wondering if war will develop. They’ll likely hedge—an action some decry as speculating. But what those speculators are actually doing is moving oil supply from a time of plenty—now—to when it’s feared it won’t be as plentiful. That may explain some of the recent price movement (though discounting the economic aspects would be a mistake). It’s a theory—but not an unreasonable one—that oil markets are fully capable of discounting the risk of war in advance of bombs falling or naval blockades. Exhibits 2 and 3 provide a few historic examples of this.
Exhibit 2: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Prices—1/1/1990 – 6/30/1990
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
As shown, when Kuwait was invaded and the US became more engaged, oil prices rose—likely in part because of traders discounting threats to Saudi supply, war in general, etc. But oil prices fell sharply at the very time bombs fell on Baghdad. (Also note: The increase in oil prices had little to do with the 1990-1991 US recession—which began before oil prices rose.)
Exhibit 3: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Prices—6/1/2002 – 12/31/2003
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Similarly, 2003’s tensions were well known before war developed, so neither case was very surprising. Thus, when military action occurred, oil prices fell. They didn’t surge, spike or even rise.
Theories abound regarding oil prices—how they happen, why, who’s to blame and what the effect really is. But when you actually break down the historical record, data may tell a different story from what you’re hearing.
We are lucky it took this long for prices to rise... the remarks from the Energy Secretary are public, and include "gas prices in the US should be as high as Europe" (paraphrased).
That said, if Europe completely goes under, we should be able to get lots for cheap
-- Edited by soccerguy315 on Saturday 3rd of March 2012 07:34:41 PM
The U.S. exported more gasoline, diesel and other fuels than it imported in 2011 for the first time since 1949, the Energy Department said today.
Shipments abroad of petroleum products exceeded imports by 439,000 barrels a day, the department said in the Petroleum Supply Monthly report. In 2010, daily net imports averaged 269,000 barrels. U.S. refiners exported record amounts of gasoline, heating oil and diesel to meet higher global fuel demand while U.S. fuel consumption sank.
U.S. Was Net Oil-Product Exporter in 2011
Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Sergio Marchionne, chief executive officer of Chrysler Group LLC, Nansen Saleri, CEO of Quantum Reservoir Impact LLC, and Edward Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup Global Markets Inc., offer their views on the rise in oil prices. This report also contains comments from Scott Clemons, chief investment strategist at Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.; Robert Hagstrom, a portfolio manager at Legg Mason Capital Management Inc., and Kevin Book, managing director at ClearView Energy Partners LLC. (Source: Bloomberg)
Oil demand in Latin America will climb 2.5 percent to 6.64 million barrels a day this year, while contracting 2.4 percent in Europe and 0.5 percent in North America, the Paris-based International Energy Agency said Feb. 10. Mexico’s use of U.S.- made gasoline was 44 percent higher last year than in 2010, Energy Department data show.
“There’s stronger global demand for clean fuels and stronger demand for fuel, outpacing production in places like South America,” said Sander Cohan, a global transportation fuels analyst and principal with Energy Security Analysis Inc. in Wakefield, Massachusetts.
Gasoline futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $3.0423 a gallon today, up 11 percent in the past year. Heating oil was up 9 percent during that period to $3.188 a gallon.
Distillate Exports
Distillate shipments rose 30 percent from a year earlier to a record 854,000 barrels a day, and daily exports of finished gasoline and blending components jumped 57 percent to 526,000 barrels in 2011.
Refiners are expanding on the Gulf Coast and in the Midwest, even as unprofitable plants along the East Coast were shut. Operable capacity in the U.S. climbed 0.8 percent to 17.7 million barrels a day in December from a year earlier.
U.S. refineries in the Gulf Coast, where about half of U.S. capacity is located, operated at 88.8 percent last year, up from 88.6 percent in 2010.
“It helps keep refinery utilization rates up in this country,” Bill Day, a spokesman for Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) in San Antonio, said in a telephone interview. “Otherwise we would see what we’re seeing on the East Coast, where refineries are shutting.”
In the fourth quarter, Valero, the largest U.S. independent refiner with 14 North American plants, exported about 5 percent of its gasoline output and 17 percent of its heating oil and diesel production, Day said.
Export Forecast
The U.S. will ship abroad 350,000 barrels a day more petroleum products that it imports in 2012 and 320,000 barrels daily in 2013, according to the department’s Short-Term Energy Outlook report released on Feb. 7.
Gasoline demand in the U.S. sank 2.9 percent to 8.736 million barrels a day last year as pump prices averaged $3.521 a gallon, the highest in records dating back to 1919.
Total U.S. oil product demand fell 9.5 percent to 18.8 million barrels a day last year from 20.8 million in 2005, department data show.
“The reason we can export so much is demand in the U.S. is weak,” Cohan said. Since 2005, the U.S. has lost nearly 2 million barrels a day of total product consumption, he said.
Diesel Demand
Global demand for diesel is rising faster than for gasoline, prompting refiners to increase yields of distillate fuels. A barrel of crude refined in the U.S. yielded 31.2 percent distillate fuel in December, the most ever. Distillate exports reached 1.13 million barrels a day during the month as cold weather in Europe boosted demand. Shipments to the Netherlands doubled, the data show.
“This year was one of the most mild winters on record in the U.S. at a time when the winter weather in Europe was just atrocious,” said James Cordier, portfolio manager at OptionSellers.com in Tampa, Florida.
Total net crude and product imports fell 11 percent from a year earlier to 8.436 million barrels a day, the lowest level since 1995, department data showed. Domestic oil output rose 3.6 percent to 5.673 million barrels a day, an eight-year high.
I bought a Civic's trunkful of douglas fir firewood for $12.50. I be damned if I will buy the minimum delivery (100gals) of fuel oil. {Heat pump just isn't efficient below 37 degrees at night-Oregon is in a small cold spell that will last about 6days. Day temps above 37 so I will run heatpump}.
R's need to be careful how they frame the Energy Equation problem.
D's should be more creative spinning Energy-Climate Change.
I was thinking last night; The heatpump, high E windows, cost close to $6000, duct insulation (no tax credits for Mom) that she has saved 3 years of fuel oil usage and/or wood burning. Fuel oil saved is 300gals/year =900gals or 22.5 barrels of refined oil and it takes ~10% of product to refine it and transport it. [USA still imports crude oil even though we are exporting excess refined products. ]
So my 95 yo mother saved 25 barrels of oil in 3 years. How many barrels did the other Americans save and not send US$ to foreign countries?
-- Edited by longprime on Wednesday 29th of February 2012 08:29:30 PM
No first term President can do much by way of supporting cutting where it hurts. The "hurt" typically alienates too many voters. If Romney is elected, he will start right away considering everything he does in light of the second term.
"cuts where it hurts" could be rephased as "resource reallocation" or "optimization"
whatever you call it, all Presidents try to do it, most only succeed when the Congress is behind the cause. Hated the reallocation that W did. Amblivalent to Obama's allocations, knowing that he took a big chance in controlling healthcare/medicare expenses where others kicked the plastic bag.
Not in love with either candidate, but I will vote for Mitt in the VA primary. There is just no way I can support Santorum. None! At least with Mitt, I hope he will come in and be a CEO. Make cuts where it may hurt, work with other leaders and get to business.
Part of being a CEO is working with other CEO's, knowing you need to address each in a unique way.
I look at Santorum and get why Sen. Snowe is not going to come back.
Of course, I am old enough to realize the DC insider theme has been around for 20 yrs starting with Clinton, but in the end they all get sucked in. I would rather have a President that has no "true" ties to any Sen/Cong. than one that has those connections in place minute 1. Santorum has those connections. He will only highlight why Snowe left.
Back on topic regarding gas prices. I believe because Santorum is a career politician he will tie us up in govt regs. I believe because Mitt comes from a business with govt background he will not.
-- Edited by pima on Wednesday 29th of February 2012 08:14:31 AM
__________________
Raising a teenager is like nailing Jello to a tree
Busdriver - hope you get some good news soon.Sounds like you have a right to be very cranky.
I agree completely that a Prius is not for everyone. I am a single mother and have plenty of room. I also used it when we had horses and everyone was shocked at how much stuff I could get in there. Yes, replacing a battery would be expensive but no one can name anyone who has ever had to do it - with a Prius that is. It is so rare that it is not worthy of factoring in any more than the fear of totaling a brand new car and not getting full value on the insurance. That is much more likely to happen. The reality is that the batteries are lasting longer than 8-10 years. I had a 2003 Prius and the guy who bought is still driving it with no major repairs. I traded it in for my 2005 and got a great trade in value. I also got the tax credit. I bought my 2003 in 2002. Traded in my Isuzu SUV because I was pissed about 9/11. I know that made little sense but I felt like I was doing something positive by not using as much gas.
We paid the Prius premium in '08. Selected the car in August, I think we were 29th in line, with expected delivery in Jan 09. By Oct 30, after the financial bubble burst, we were #3. We took delivery with no abiltity for price negotiation. By Superbowl Jan '09, Toyota was offering substantial discounts on the Prius.
If it makes you feel any better, samurai, if you had bought a prius in 2008, you would have paid a 3-4K premium on it (when gas prices were very high), and if you'd waited a year, you wouldn't have paid the premium. So maybe a smart decision with what you bought after all. And those practices will stop in a couple of months, so you aren't doing it forever. And then, when you don't have to spend your life driving kids around, such freedom you will have!
I'd be cranky too if I had to pay that kind of money for gas. But hey, at least you have SUNSHINE!
ugh, I'm cranky anyways. Father-in-law is suddenly gravely ill, kid 2500 miles away texted me he was in the hospital, I'm tired, have a stomach ache, and people keep bugging me to do things for them (no two way street, just do this for me). Plus it looks like my refinance might be going in the toilet, grrrr!!! Cranky, cranky!
Used to carpool with an Intel (INTC, nyse) guy in early 80's. His desiel Rabbit used to get 45-50 mpg on freeway.
We could discuss the value of hybrid vs pure gas driven autos or the variations of energy usage. The goal is to reduce energy dependency, and there are many ways to achieve it.
Installing a heat pump vs oil heat. Payback for mom's house=never. But I'd rather pay a monthly renewable electric bill than $800 per tank fill 2x year.
Replace single pane aluminum frame windows. Payback for mom's house=never.
Replacing double pane aluminum frame windows. Payback for my house=never.
Having children vs not having children. Payback=never.
Irritating spouse vs not irritating spouse. Payback=never, but the joy is wonderful for a few seconds.
"I consistently get 52 mpg on mine - closer to 58 in city driving - but I know how to drive it. Most people don't."
Good Lord, you sound like my husband. He's convinced we're down to 48.5 mpg because people other than him drive it. I think it might have something to do with the fact we need a tune up and don't keep the tires filled correctly. But there are positives and negatives to the Prius. You couldn't fit a big family in it, though it is pretty roomy for a small car, it is a small car. It is dangerously quiet at low speeds, people just don't hear you in a parking lot. It drives like crap in the snow. You pay a premium for it, for sure.
On the other hand, we've had it for four years with zero repairs or tuneups. It is the smoothest, quietest ride we have, fits plenty in the trunk and fits 4 large adults. You get to play with all the cool toys on it. And best thing, we can fill the tank for less than $30 and go a long ways on it.
On the other hand, you get to deal with the knowing nods of people who think you are one of them, caring about the universe as they glide by in their superiority....thinking you probably must be another wheatgrass munching vegan too. We need to get a sticker that says, "Nope, just don't like paying for gas."
Not everyone can fit their family in a Prius. There is a range of hybrid cars - we looked into it when we bought our Toyota Highlander in 2006. We looked at the costs and couldn't justify the extra expense, since most of his miles were on the freeway, not around town.
Still want to know why it cost my sister more than $5000 to replace her Civic Hybrid battery at her dealer. Is there really such a big difference between Prius and Civic technology?