perhaps China will sell some of their USA bonds (recycle) so that they can pay for the equipment and supplies to build infrastructure in NK. SK can be the site managers, PRC will be the Producer, USA/Japan/SK/China/Russia will provide some equipment and NK will provide cheap manual labor and eventually get paid so that NK can buy goods from China.
Cheaper than War and destabilization.
Everybody happy.
-- Edited by longprime on Wednesday 1st of December 2010 12:25:11 PM
Not so fast there, buckaroo. Let's take a look at how Germany achieved their success today after what the disastrous years after the reunification did to their stagnated economy. After lagging behind so many years because of the sudden economic drain of East Germany, they were forced to enact a little thing called "Agenda 2010", a massive slashing of social welfare programs and the standard of living for the average German worker. Those measures are playing a large role in Germany's ability to manage their economy today comapred to the rest of the EU.
And despite that effort, the old East Germany lags behind West Germany and remains a financial burden. (20% poverty rate in E G vs 13% in W G).
Exactly what social programs is China going to cut to absorb the economic burden of restoring N. Korea to acceptable standards of living?
Simply put, China is just starting to have the ability to flex its economic might due to draconian measures b the ruling party to substantiate it. Measures that didn't include that much of a concern for "social welfare" of it's populace (a population nearly 20 times the size of Germany's). They don't have the ability to simply shift their economic paradigm the way Germany did. Simply put, their economy would stagnate for DECADES, and this isn't a desirable outcome for the ruling party's current plans.
Nah, China doesn't want to risk it, and won't for a Looooooong time.
-- Edited by Bullet on Wednesday 1st of December 2010 09:57:31 AM
-- Edited by Bullet on Wednesday 1st of December 2010 09:57:57 AM
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You can't handle the truth! Son, we live in a world that has walls, and those walls have to be guarded by men with guns. Whose gonna do it? You? I have a greater responsibility than you could possibly fathom.
I think that the influx of NK into China is their main fear. I think everyone remembers the damage the wall coming down did to Germany's economy. Not only the damage on the west side, but the east too. It was years of economic instability after the fall because they now needed to find a new equilibrium when it came to supply and demand.
You had people leaving their homes in the East which caused their market to fall, while in the West they had a shortage which caused prices to dramatically increase. The opposite occurred regarding employment because now the West had too many people looking for work while the East had too few.
China maybe able to absorb those numbers, but I don't know if SK could without doing economic damage.
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interesting info RE: China/NK coming from the wikileaks stuff...
------ The leaked North Korea dispatches detail how:
• South Korea's vice-foreign minister said he was told by two named senior Chinese officials that they believed Korea should be reunified under Seoul's control, and that this view was gaining ground with the leadership in Beijing.
• China's vice-foreign minister told US officials that Pyongyang was behaving like a "spoiled child" to get Washington's attention in April 2009 by carrying out missile tests.
• A Chinese ambassador warned that North Korean nuclear activity was "a threat to the whole world's security".
• Chinese officials assessed that it could cope with an influx of 300,000 North Koreans in the event of serious instability, according to a representative of an international agency, but might need to use the military to seal the border.
In highly sensitive discussions in February this year, the-then South Korean vice-foreign minister, Chun Yung-woo, told a US ambassador, Kathleen Stephens, that younger generation Chinese Communist party leaders no longer regarded North Korea as a useful or reliable ally and would not risk renewed armed conflict on the peninsula, according to a secret cable to Washington. -------
SO we both agree Kim Jong Il is a renegade, but he is not a moron. He knows in the end of the day NK will be blown off the map. If he does this it can only be classified as a death wish. Thus, my point is proven, he is all bark and no bite. He isn't going to do squat!
If we agree he won't do squat why are we even giving this issue a moments thought?
Now for the Bush family No. The Bush family has heavy business ties with the Saudi Royal Family, who felt threatened by Iraq. That was the reason they paid for most of the First Gulf War, and protecting their interests was clearly a motivation for Bush.
Seriously? Did you forget that Saddam invaded Kuwait? It had nothing to do with Saudis for Gulf 1, it had everything to do with an invasion. Saddam plowed into Kuwait back in August of 90. Saddam caused Gulf 1, the Saudi's had no hand in this nor did the Bush's.
I'm sure everyone here knows about Cheney and Haliburton, and the contracts it was awarded due to the war. Or are you going to believe that nearly every administration has been corrupt in some way except... George W. Bush?
Do you understand how military contracts are awarded?
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Raising a teenager is like nailing Jello to a tree
WMD were the rationale for the Iraq war. Iraq was presented as a real and imminent threat.
Gee, it turns out there were no WMD. Either we were mistaken, lying, or there was in fact some other reason for us to tear up the country, spill an ocean of blood and begger ourselves. Guess which one the Bushies picked?
Revisionist history is intellectually bankrupt no matter what the political position, degree of distinction, or former intellectual credibility of the revisor.
Isn't that a little off the top in the conspiracy theory? No. The Bush family has heavy business ties with the Saudi Royal Family, who felt threatened by Iraq. That was the reason they paid for most of the First Gulf War, and protecting their interests was clearly a motivation for Bush. I'm sure everyone here knows about Cheney and Haliburton, and the contracts it was awarded due to the war. Or are you going to believe that nearly every administration has been corrupt in some way except... George W. Bush?
Did you forget the horrors Saddam placed upon his own people like the Kurds and gassing? Or how he had used the Food for Oil program to bank roll his own financial security...remember how he had millions upon millions in banks while his people were starving? These are good reasons, reasons that were never offered, that weren't used to justify going to war at the time.
N.Korea is not an issue of anything else, but the fact that they have no military might. They are not a threat, please google night time satellite image of NK, and you will see it is pitch black.
The US is doing the right thing. We owe a ton of money to China, China has an impact in NK. China wants us to pay them back, and a way to make sure we don't default is by them keeping NK in line. The minute NK lobs a missile that kills an American Soldier on the DMZ is the minute crap will start flying. Do you believe for one second that we would not step up if a soldier died? China knows we will, from a diplomatic and economic standpoint they need NK to tow the line. Are you still talking to me? I don't think North Korea poses a significant threat to the US, but it does to South Korea, Japan, and China, if it felt like it, because of their nuclear capability. The US is paying back the loans that China has bought up (albeit borrowing more, making more debt that China can buy up), and little short of a war would change that. However, I do not think that when it comes down to it, China can control North Korea. Kim Jong Il is a renegade, and just the kind of person we don't want having nuclear weapons, though I'm willing to bet he won't use them, for if he did, their true power would disappear, and his country would be invaded and destroyed.
We also can't afford to leave either because we need SK and Japan as staging areas in the Pacific.
They have no need to cower to China, since in the end of the day they have our protection. This is nothing more than a stalemate issue.
China needs the US more than it needs NK, yet at the same time the US needs China too. Neither are going to allow either country to upset the apple cart. It just isn't in ours and theirs best interest. NK knows that, just as SK knows it too.
This really is a non-player issue. All this is a bunch of all bark and no bite.
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I'm not. They don't want to capitulate to the "new world order."
They are going to lose a lot of power as this progresses, because China is really about to assume their position as a superpower, and this means they will get to say what happens.
We can no longer afford to be the protectors over there.
We will see that China will change as they are forced to come out on the world stage and mediate and change their corner of the globe. It's an expensive proposition, and maybe, if we can steam our ships back home, we can get back to the business of our borders and our own country.
We really have some things we need to take care of over here, regardless of how much we want to pretend we do not. Sheesh, it's always easier to go into someone else's house and "see" what needs to be fixed. More challenging to get your own house in order.
I think you are missing the point about this situation. NK is attacking SK. We have tens of thousands of US servicemembers stationed in SK. NK hits SK and if one US military member is injured NK now has to answer to the US. China does not want this from an economic reason and will do everything to keep NK in check.
Your theory of obsolete weapons reminds me of what boys are taught when it comes to fighting...make sure you get them to the ground in the 1st punch, because when they get up you will pay for it.
NK knows that. NK can hit SK tomorrow, but they better make sure when they do, SK is down for the count because the US will come and decimate them within seconds.
Obsolete weapons can not make up for cruise missiles, 5th generation fighters and UAVs. Seriously, knock themselves out, the minute they lob one missile NOW, while we have battleships in the area and 15/16s in SK patrolling the skies armed is the minute that NK will no longer exist.
The reality is they are a hollow force, one that cannot go up against the big dogs. China is not going to come to their aid because we owe big bucks to them and will default crashing their economy. NK is a pebble in their foot and they will take off their shoe remove the pebble and move on if it means it is in their best interest.
China wants a seat at the table, if they support NK over SK, they place that seat in jeopardy with countries like France, UK, Australia, Germany, and the US. They need these countries for fiscal reasons. They don't need NK.
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But directly taking oil would be obvious. It's to "protect interests", make a friendly seller of oil, and give massive military contracts to companies partly owned by the Bushes, Cheney, Rumsfeld, or their friends/cronies.
Isn't that a little off the top in the conspiracy theory?
Did you forget the horrors Saddam placed upon his own people like the Kurds and gassing? Or how he had used the Food for Oil program to bank roll his own financial security...remember how he had millions upon millions in banks while his people were starving?
N.Korea is not an issue of anything else, but the fact that they have no military might. They are not a threat, please google night time satellite image of NK, and you will see it is pitch black.
The US is doing the right thing. We owe a ton of money to China, China has an impact in NK. China wants us to pay them back, and a way to make sure we don't default is by them keeping NK in line. The minute NK lobs a missile that kills an American Soldier on the DMZ is the minute crap will start flying. Do you believe for one second that we would not step up if a soldier died? China knows we will, from a diplomatic and economic standpoint they need NK to tow the line.
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Raising a teenager is like nailing Jello to a tree
Wow, just coming in with some stupid ideas on all fronts today. We aren't taking their oil - period. I think we should - it'd be a good way to pay for the war. But we aren't. That was 4 days ago, incidentally. As for them not taking the oil... See my "misguided AND incompetent" comment. But directly taking oil would be obvious. It's to "protect interests", make a friendly seller of oil, and give massive military contracts to companies partly owned by the Bushes, Cheney, Rumsfeld, or their friends/cronies.
I'm sure you'll be coming up with tons of sources too.
Wow, just coming in with some stupid ideas on all fronts today. We aren't taking their oil - period. I think we should - it'd be a good way to pay for the war. But we aren't. That was 4 days ago, incidentally. As for them not taking the oil... See my "misguided AND incompetent" comment. But directly taking oil would be obvious. It's to "protect interests", make a friendly seller of oil, and give massive military contracts to companies partly owned by the Bushes, Cheney, Rumsfeld, or their friends/cronies.
North Korea is a tough nut. That's why "W" opted to kick Sadam's ass over waving the big stick in Kim Jong Il's direction, even though we knew North Korea to be infinitely more of a threat to our national security (and Il a more cruely repressive, and badass dictator) than Sadam would ever be.
I think Operation Iraqi Liberation had to do with only a single comparison between Iraq and North Korea.
Wow, just coming in with some stupid ideas on all fronts today. We aren't taking their oil - period. I think we should - it'd be a good way to pay for the war. But we aren't.
that's why gas so is cheap in the US now, right? because we are taking all of Iraq's oil? And China is getting none? Newsflash: Iraq War misguided AND incompetent.
North Korea is a tough nut. That's why "W" opted to kick Sadam's ass over waving the big stick in Kim Jong Il's direction, even though we knew North Korea to be infinitely more of a threat to our national security (and Il a more cruely repressive, and badass dictator) than Sadam would ever be.
I think Operation Iraqi Liberation had to do with only a single comparison between Iraq and North Korea.
that's why gas so is cheap in the US now, right? because we are taking all of Iraq's oil? And China is getting none?
**** roaches I think you inserted an unfortunate space...
Israel will be on their own at that point. Eh, if pro-Israeli sentiment continues as it is, probably not to this degree. Though aid would likely be reduced.
I have to agree with Billy. If N. Korea was sitting on a sea of black petroleum we would have been there years ago... It's all about our interests. When the oil dries up in the middle east we'll scatter out of there like ****roaches...Israel will be on their own at that point.
-- Edited by pmrlcomm on Thursday 25th of November 2010 05:27:46 AM
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North Korea is a tough nut. That's why "W" opted to kick Sadam's ass over waving the big stick in Kim Jong Il's direction, even though we knew North Korea to be infinitely more of a threat to our national security (and Il a more cruely repressive, and badass dictator) than Sadam would ever be.
I think Operation Iraqi Liberation had to do with only a single comparison between Iraq and North Korea.
North Korea is a tough nut. That's why "W" opted to kick Sadam's ass over waving the big stick in Kim Jong Il's direction, even though we knew North Korea to be infinitely more of a threat to our national security (and Il a more cruely repressive, and badass dictator) than Sadam would ever be. So what does that great radio sage Rush Limbaugh think we should do about North Korea? How about John Boehner? Sarah Palin? Charles Krauthammer? No doubt they'll know what to do.
Looks like there may be another war. Hopefully North Korea won't lop a few nuclear bombs over the border. If so, the US needs to realize that responding in kind would be a terrible idea. In such a case, a swift conventional warfare assault and take-over could topple the government, and reduce the chances of Chinese intervention.
A childhood friend of mine flies helos for the Marines and is stationed in South Korea on the border. He was in the air this morning. Will be interesting to hear what he saw.
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